{"id":439073,"date":"2026-09-30T10:07:20","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T03:07:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/goldman-persian-gulf-oil-exports-back-at-2025-average-after-doubling-in-september-439073\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T10:07:20","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T03:07:20","slug":"goldman-persian-gulf-oil-exports-back-at-2025-average-after-doubling-in-september","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/goldman-persian-gulf-oil-exports-back-at-2025-average-after-doubling-in-september-439073\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman: Persian Gulf oil exports back at 2025 average after doubling in September"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Goldman&#8217;s estimate reinforces the supply-recovery theme that pushed Brent down circa 2.5% to around $103 on Tuesday, while WTI held below $90 on Wednesday and remains on course for a third straight monthly gain. Goldman said in a late-August note that rising dark flows could moderate the upside for crude even if Middle East disruption lasts longer, and the latest figures lend that view more weight. The same note argued that refined products and European gas had more upside than crude in a persistent disruption, which fits the market&#8217;s focus on diesel. The main risk to the recovery story is diplomatic, since <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/commodities\/us-iran-talks-stall-as-qatar-mediation-yields-little-raising-risk-of-renewed-combat\/\" rel=\"follow\">stalled US-Iran talk<\/a>s and reports that Washington could return to major combat after the midterms leave a tail risk in the price.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Goldman&#8217;s estimate that Gulf oil exports are back at their 2025 average, led by Saudi Arabia while Iran shipped no crude by sea, underpins the supply-recovery story now weighing on crude.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>Goldman Sachs estimates that Persian Gulf oil exports, including dark exports, have recovered to their 2025 average after doubling in September.<\/li>\n<li>Saudi exports led the recovery and rose above their 2025 average, while Iran shipped no crude by sea in September.<\/li>\n<li>Dark exports are cargoes carried by tankers that switch off their satellite transponders, which makes them hard to track.<\/li>\n<li>In a late-August note, Goldman had estimated exports at around two-thirds of pre-war levels, up from a trough of around 5 million to 6 million barrels per day in March.<\/li>\n<li>Brent settled Tuesday down circa 2.5% at around $103 and WTI at around $89, with both benchmarks still on course for monthly gains.<\/li>\n<li>The backdrop includes Saudi Arabia&#8217;s resumption of loadings at Yanbu, a US offer of up to 40 million barrels from its strategic reserve and stalled US-Iran talks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\nGoldman Sachs estimates that oil exports from the Persian Gulf, including so-called dark exports, have recovered to their 2025 average after doubling in September. The bank said Saudi exports led the recovery and rose above their 2025 average, while Iran shipped no crude by sea during the month. The estimate gives fresh support to the supply-recovery theme that has come to dominate the oil market.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Dark exports refer to cargoes carried by tankers that turn off their satellite transponders, which makes flows through the Strait of Hormuz difficult to measure. Goldman has argued that the rise in such crossings, together with more ship-to-ship transfers, shows producers and shippers adapting to the conflict. In a note in late August, the bank estimated that exports of crude and oil products from the region had recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, at 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, well above a trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels a day in March but still 7 million to 8 million below levels before the war began. It said at the time that higher dark flows could moderate the upside for crude prices even if disruptions last longer.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The latest figures fit with other evidence of a rebound. Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting the East-West Pipeline, according to Reuters, and Kpler data showed crude exports from Middle East producers rebounding in September to around 16 million barrels per day, the highest since the war began in late February. Brent settled down circa 2.5% at around $103 a barrel on Tuesday and WTI closed at around $89, although Brent remains on course for a monthly gain in double digits. The US Department of Energy also offered up to 40 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Goldman&#8217;s gave no reason for Iran&#8217;s absence from seaborne crude exports. The US naval blockade is central to Iran&#8217;s demands in the stalled diplomacy, according to Axios, which reported that Qatari mediation this week made little progress and that US officials think President Donald Trump could order a return to major combat operations after the midterms. Trump has said he offered Iran nothing to end the war.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The recovery story is therefore only one side of the balance. Traders will watch whether exports keep rising, whether Iran&#8217;s absence continues, and whether a breakdown in talks brings supply disruption back into the price. Refined products such as diesel are also a focus, with the White House urging the European Union to draw on its diesel emergency stocks to lower global prices.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Goldman&#8217;s estimate reinforces the supply-recovery theme that pushed Brent down circa 2.5% to around $103 on Tuesday, while WTI held below $90 on Wednesday and remains on course for a third straight&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439073","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439073"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439073\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439073"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439073"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439073"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}