{"id":439076,"date":"2026-09-30T12:00:10","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T05:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/heads-up-germany-september-cpi-expected-to-show-inflation-back-above-3-439076\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T12:00:10","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T05:00:10","slug":"heads-up-germany-september-cpi-expected-to-show-inflation-back-above-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/heads-up-germany-september-cpi-expected-to-show-inflation-back-above-3-439076\/","title":{"rendered":"Heads up: Germany September CPI expected to show inflation back above 3%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">German inflation will be one of the main economic data points to watch out for in European trading today, with the September reading expected to show a further pick up in price pressures.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Here&#8217;s what markets are looking for:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>CPI +3.1% y\/y expected; Prior +2.9%<\/li>\n<li>HICP +3.2% y\/y expected; Prior +2.9%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">The August report already showed inflation accelerating to 2.9%, with energy prices rising 10.5% on the year and doing much of the heavy lifting. The key metric to keep an eye out for though is core CPI, and that\u00a0was comparatively steadier at 2.4% in August.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Overall, another move higher in September would reinforce the narrative that headline inflation pressures are not going away just yet &#8211; particularly with elevated energy costs still feeding through.\u00a0That matters for the ECB, even if policymakers have been reluctant to react mechanically to the energy shock.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">But more importantly, the read on core inflation will be what provides a better signals for markets and the ECB reaction function. An uptick in core prices could signal that inflation pressures are broadening and that raises the risks\u00a0of second-round effects, which is what the ECB is placing heavy emphasis on.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Before we get the national figure, the state CPI readings will give us an early indication of how things are shaping up.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Here&#8217;s the agenda for today:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>0800 GMT &#8211; North Rhine Westphalia<\/li>\n<li>0800 GMT &#8211; Hesse<\/li>\n<li>0800 GMT &#8211; Bavaria<\/li>\n<li>0800 GMT &#8211; Baden Wuerttemberg<\/li>\n<li>0800 GMT &#8211; Saxony<\/li>\n<li>1200 GMT &#8211; Germany national preliminary figures<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Do note that the releases don&#8217;t exactly follow the schedule at times and may be released a little earlier or later.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">For markets, I&#8217;d firstly be watching whether the state readings show a broad acceleration across the board rather than an isolated jump in one or two regions. If that is the case, it would make the above 3% national estimates increasingly difficult to dismiss &#8211; especially if accompanied by a rise in core inflation.\u00a0In turn, that will keep the inflation debate firmly alive heading into the ECB&#8217;s final few meetings for the year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>German inflation will be one of the main economic data points to watch out for in European trading today, with the September reading expected to show a further pick up in price&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439076","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439076"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439076\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}