{"id":439211,"date":"2026-10-01T22:04:23","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T15:04:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usdjpy-and-usdchf-break-lower-as-usdcad-tests-trendline-support-439211\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T22:04:23","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T15:04:23","slug":"usdjpy-and-usdchf-break-lower-as-usdcad-tests-trendline-support","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usdjpy-and-usdchf-break-lower-as-usdcad-tests-trendline-support-439211\/","title":{"rendered":"USDJPY and USDCHF break lower as USDCAD tests trendline support"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>The USDJPY and USDCHF have seen a pocket of dollar weakness, with both pairs breaking below key hourly moving averages. Those moves have tilted the short-term bias more toward the sellers, although there is still work to do to build on the downside momentum.<\/p>\n<p>The USDCAD remains higher on the day, but its retreat from a new high has brought a rising trendline back into focus. Yesterday\u2019s break below that trendline failed. Can sellers make another attempt stick?<\/p>\n<p>In the video above, I take a look at the three pairs, the technical levels defining the risk, and what the price needs to do next.<\/p>\n<p>USDJPY: Sellers get an opening below the hourly moving averages<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>The USDJPY found resistance near 158.46, where the 200-day moving average and the 50% midpoint of the decline from the July 2026 high converge. That combination gave traders a clear upside hurdle. Buyers could not get through it, and the price rotated lower.<\/p>\n<p>The decline subsequently took the pair below the 157.90\u2013158.04 swing area, followed by the 200-hour moving average at 157.655 and the 100-hour moving average at 157.416. The selling extended to a new intraday low of 157.35.<\/p>\n<p>However, the price has since bounced back between the two hourly moving averages. That puts traders at an important decision point.<\/p>\n<p>Trading between those moving averages brings some neutrality back into the picture. Sellers now need to limit the rebound below the 200-hour moving average, then push the price back below the 100-hour moving average to reinforce their control.<\/p>\n<p>A sustained move below both would put the 38.2% retracement at 157.136 in focus. Below that, traders would target recent swing lows in the 156.36\u2013156.655 area.<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, a move back above both hourly moving averages would weaken the bearish case and shift attention toward 157.90\u2013158.04. Buyers would need to reclaim that swing area before looking back toward the resistance near 158.46.<\/p>\n<p>Key technical levels:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>158.46: 200-day moving average and 50% retracement.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>157.90\u2013158.04: Swing-area resistance.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>157.655: 200-hour moving average.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>157.416: 100-hour moving average.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>157.35: Intraday low.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>157.136: 38.2% retracement.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>156.36\u2013156.655: Lower swing support.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>USDCHF: Six-day winning streak faces a technical test<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>The USDCHF has closed higher for six consecutive sessions, and earlier today it looked positioned to extend that streak. Buyers pushed the price to 0.8382, but the move higher lost momentum and the pair rotated back toward its rising 100-hour moving average at 0.8328.<\/p>\n<p>In the current hourly bar, the price broke below that moving average. Buyers turned to sellers on the break, and the decline extended.<\/p>\n<p>That matters because the 100-hour moving average now gives traders a clear level to measure the rebound. Stay below 0.8328, and sellers retain the short-term advantage. Move back above and stay above, and the break lower starts to lose credibility.<\/p>\n<p>On the downside, the next key target comes near 0.8282, where the 200-hour moving average and a rising trendline converge. With two technical tools meeting in the same area, it becomes an important test for both sides.<\/p>\n<p>Buyers could lean against that support with risk defined below it. However, a break below\u2014and sustained trading below\u2014would strengthen the bearish bias and could intensify the selling.<\/p>\n<p>Key technical levels:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>0.8382: Today\u2019s high.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>0.8328: Broken 100-hour moving average; resistance on a rebound.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>0.8282: 200-hour moving average and rising trendline support.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>USDCAD: Buyers remain in control, but the breakout loses momentum<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>The USDCAD is still higher on the day, but the price has rotated toward an upward-sloping trendline near 1.4234.<\/p>\n<p>That trendline was also in play yesterday. Sellers broke below it and extended the decline through the rising 100-hour moving average. However, they could not sustain the momentum. The price snapped back higher and closed above the trendline, putting buyers back in control.<\/p>\n<p>The sellers had their shot. They missed.<\/p>\n<p>Today, buyers extended above the June high at 1.4247, reaching 1.4258, the highest level since April 2025. However, the breakout produced only limited follow-through before the price rotated lower.<\/p>\n<p>That does not hand control to the sellers, but it makes the trendline test more important. Hold above 1.4234, and buyers preserve the bullish structure, with another move through 1.4247 and 1.4258 needed to extend the rally.<\/p>\n<p>A break below the trendline would give sellers another opening. This time, they would need to keep the price below it to build confidence in a deeper correction. If they can do that, the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.41877 becomes the next key downside target.<\/p>\n<p>Key technical levels:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>1.4258: Today\u2019s high.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>1.4247: June high and breakout level.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>1.4234: Rising trendline support.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>1.41877: Rising 100-hour moving average.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Education: A break gives traders a signal. Staying beyond it gives confirmation.<\/p>\n<p>A move through a moving average or trendline gives traders an early signal that control may be changing. The follow-through tells us whether that signal deserves more confidence.<\/p>\n<p>Yesterday\u2019s USDCAD move is a good example. Sellers broke support, but the price quickly recovered. The break failed, and buyers regained control.<\/p>\n<p>For the USDJPY and USDCHF, the same lesson applies now. Sellers have created an opening by breaking below key moving averages. Their next job is to keep the price below those levels and extend toward the next targets.<\/p>\n<p>The levels help define the bias\u2014and just as importantly, they tell traders when that bias is no longer working.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The USDJPY and USDCHF have seen a pocket of dollar weakness, with both pairs breaking below key hourly moving averages. Those moves have tilted the short-term bias more toward the sellers, although&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439211","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439211"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439211\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}