{"id":439216,"date":"2026-10-02T01:40:06","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T18:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/preview-september-non-farm-payrolls-by-the-numbers-439216\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T01:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T18:40:06","slug":"preview-september-non-farm-payrolls-by-the-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/preview-september-non-farm-payrolls-by-the-numbers-439216\/","title":{"rendered":"Preview: September non-farm payrolls by the numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>What&#8217;s expected:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Consensus estimate +910K (range +35K to +180K)<\/li>\n<li>August +162K<\/li>\n<li>July +21K<\/li>\n<li>Private consensus estimate +85K<\/li>\n<li>Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.1% vs 4.1% prior<\/li>\n<li>Participation rate 61.6% prior<\/li>\n<li>Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.7%<\/li>\n<li>Avg hourly earnings y\/y exp +3.2% y\/y vs +3.1% prior<\/li>\n<li>Avg hourly earnings m\/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior<\/li>\n<li>Avg weekly hours exp 34.3 vs 34.4 prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>September jobs so far:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ADP employment report +90K\u00a0vs +75K expected and +36K prior <\/li>\n<li>ISM services employment not yet released<\/li>\n<li>ISM manufacturing employment 52.7 vs 52.0 exp and 52.8 prior<\/li>\n<li>Challenger Job Cuts 43,281 vs 52,881 prior<\/li>\n<li>Philly employment +11.8vs +27.9 prior<\/li>\n<li>Empire employment +10.6 vs +9.3 prior<\/li>\n<li>Initial jobless claims survey week 196K vs 206K last month<\/li>\n<li>Revelio Labs +57K vs +41K prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>According to BMO,\u00a0the headline payrolls print is seasonally softer in September, coming in below estimates 64% of the time and beating 36% of the time, by 92k and 65k, respectively, on average. They note though that September NFP has exceeded expectations for the last four consecutive years. On the flipside, 57% of previous unemployment prints for September have been lower-than-expected, 18% have been higher-than-estimates, and 25% have matched the consensus. Add that up and the seasonals lean slightly hawkish but September is a notoriously tough month for seasonal adjustments.<\/p>\n<p>Fed pricing ahead of the release is for a 30% chance of a rate hike on October 28. That number has come down dramatically in the past week on dovish comments from the Fed&#8217;s Williams and a softer PCE report. Non-farm payrolls could be another game changer and with the data-dependent stance from the Fed, it could could be another big swing.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>I tend to see the risks as balanced as a soft number would take away the urgency to hike while a strong number would reopen the October debate but unless it&#8217;s accompanied by a strong wage number, I wouldn&#8217;t see it as a game-changer. At the moment though, the market is highly tuned into economic data so expect decent moves either way.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What&#8217;s expected: Consensus estimate +910K (range +35K to +180K) August +162K July +21K Private consensus estimate +85K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.1% vs 4.1% prior Participation rate 61.6% prior Prior underemployment U6&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439216","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439216","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439216"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439216\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439216"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439216"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439216"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}