{"id":439217,"date":"2026-10-02T03:00:07","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T20:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/nike-earnings-preview-can-hills-turnaround-give-buyers-their-shot-439217\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T03:00:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T20:00:07","slug":"nike-earnings-preview-can-hills-turnaround-give-buyers-their-shot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/nike-earnings-preview-can-hills-turnaround-give-buyers-their-shot-439217\/","title":{"rendered":"Nike earnings preview: Can Hill\u2019s turnaround give buyers their shot?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Nike reports earnings after the close today, with the stock near its lowest level since February 2014. Expectations are subdued, but the bigger question is whether CEO Elliott Hill can give investors a clearer path back to growth.<\/p>\n<p>Results are scheduled for approximately 4:15 p.m. ET, followed by the conference call at 5 p.m. ET.<\/p>\n<p>What is expected?<\/p>\n<p>For Nike\u2019s fiscal first quarter of 2027, analysts expect:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Earnings per share of $0.44, compared with $0.49 a year earlier.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Revenue of approximately $11.33\u2013$11.35 billion, compared with $11.72 billion.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>An earnings decline of approximately 10% and a revenue decline of approximately 3%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A beat would help, but investors will also want to know when sales stabilize, whether China is improving, and whether Nike can generate stronger demand without relying on discounts.<\/p>\n<p>Elliott Hill: From intern to CEO<\/p>\n<p>Eliot Hill is the Nike CEO since 2024.\u00a0 Hill&#8217;s story began in 1988 as an intern. He spent 32 years working his way through the company, eventually overseeing commercial and marketing operations for Nike and Jordan across its four geographic regions. He retired in 2020 before returning as CEO in October 2024, replacing John Donahoe.<\/p>\n<p>His appointment brought an experienced Nike insider back to the top job. His priorities have included putting athletes and performance products at the center of the business and rebuilding relationships with retail partners after the previous leadership\u2019s heavier emphasis on direct sales.<\/p>\n<p>Nearly two years into his tenure, the pressure is on to translate those priorities into measurable improvement.<\/p>\n<p>Last quarter, wholesale revenue rose 4%, while Nike Direct revenue fell 7%. The question is whether products shipped to retailers are selling through to consumers quickly enough to support healthy inventories and full-price sales.<\/p>\n<p>Caitlin Clark gives Nike a new product catalyst<\/p>\n<p>The earnings report coincides with today\u2019s global launch of the Nike Caitlin 1, WNBA player Caitlin Clark\u2019s first signature basketball shoe. The shoe retails for $140, with initial colors including Caitlin Blue and Warning Code Yellow. Nike is also launching an accompanying apparel collection.<\/p>\n<p>The launch gives Hill a visible example of his athlete-led product strategy. The opportunity is to turn Clark\u2019s popularity into sustained demand across footwear and apparel.<\/p>\n<p>The timing matters, however. The quarter being reported ended in August, so the September launch in China and October global launch fall into the following quarter. Tonight\u2019s focus will be any early indication of demand and what the collection could contribute going forward.<\/p>\n<p>Clark joins other athletes around whom Nike is building new product franchises. That focus has been on Woman&#8217;s basketball:\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Sabrina Ionescu: Her Sabrina 4 footwear and apparel collection launched in July. Ionescu is a WNBA star player.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>A\u2019ja Wilson:\u00a0A\u2019ja Wilson is another of\u00a0WNBA\u2019s biggest stars.\u00a0 Her second signature shoe, the A\u2019Two, launched in May.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>JuJu Watkins:\u00a0JuJu Watkins is a star women\u2019s basketball player at the University of Southern California.Nike introduced the LeBron NXXT Gen by JuJu.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Devin Booker:\u00a0NBA all-star player.\u00a0 His Book 2 footwear and apparel collection launched in January.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Investors will want evidence that these launches are producing repeat purchases and profitable growth.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Among the NBA stars represented by Nike are:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>LeBron James<\/li>\n<li>Kevin Durant<\/li>\n<li>Giannis Antetokounmpo<\/li>\n<li>Devin Booker<\/li>\n<li>Ja Morant<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Nike\u2019s athlete roster extends beyond basketball. Some of its prominent names across other sports include:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Soccer: Cristiano Ronaldo, Erling Haaland and Vin\u00edcius J\u00fanior. Nike featured all three in its 2026 soccer campaign. <\/li>\n<li>Tennis: Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner\u2014two major names supporting Nike\u2019s tennis footwear and apparel business.<\/li>\n<li>Golf: Scottie Scheffler and Nelly Korda, both prominently featured in Nike Golf. Their Nike relationships focus on apparel and footwear. <\/li>\n<li>NFL: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Ja\u2019Marr Chase and Kyler Murray. Nike also continues recruiting college and high-school athletes through NIL partnerships. <\/li>\n<li>Track and running: Sha\u2019Carri Richardson, Faith Kipyegon, Jakob Ingebrigtsen and Eliud Kipchoge. These athletes support Nike\u2019s performance running identity.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Competition is taking major names<\/p>\n<p>Nike\u2019s athlete strategy also faces growing competition. The most significant recent departure is Kylian Mbapp\u00e9, who ended his long Nike relationship in September to join On. His deal includes cash and equity, and On plans to introduce soccer boots in 2027. That gives an expanding competitor a major athlete as it enters another important Nike market.<\/p>\n<p>Nike, Jordan and Converse remain central to the recovery<\/p>\n<p>Nike\u2019s portfolio consists of Nike, Jordan and Converse. Jordan is a distinct brand, but its revenue is included within Nike Brand sales.<\/p>\n<p>For fiscal 2026:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Nike Brand revenue was $45.2 billion, including Jordan.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Jordan revenue was $7.03 billion, down 3%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Converse revenue was approximately $1.2 billion, down 31%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>New products can create excitement, but the recovery also depends on restoring demand for established franchises such as Air Force 1, Dunk, Air Jordan and Converse\u2019s Chuck Taylor, while building momentum in performance footwear.<\/p>\n<p>Technically, sellers remain in control<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>At the current price of $36.24, Nike is down 43.25% this year and trading near levels last seen in February 2014. The stock is approximately 79.8% below its November 2021 all-time high of $179.10.<\/p>\n<p>The moving averages show the damage across several time frames:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>100-week moving average at $60.78: The price remains well below this longer-term trend barometer.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>200-day moving average at $48.89: A substantial recovery would be needed to challenge this resistance.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>100-day moving average at $41.33: The price has remained below this moving average since February 25, 2026.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>200-hour moving average at $37.40: This is key resistance for an initial recovery. Nike has remained below it since early August, when the average stood near $42.70.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>100-hour moving average at $36.11: With the price just above it, this is the closest technical reference heading into earnings.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For buyers, staying above the 100-hour moving average at $36.11 provides a modest foothold. Getting above\u2014and staying above\u2014the 200-hour moving average at $37.40 would be a more meaningful step toward taking short-term control. That level is approximately 3.2% above the current price.<\/p>\n<p>A sustained break above would put the 100-day moving average at $41.33 into focus, approximately 14% above the current price. Conversely, a move back below $36.11 would weaken the buyers\u2019 position. When a stock is trading at the lowest level since 2014, the burden of proof is on the buyers to show they can string together some victories.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The good news for potential investors right now, is you are buying low &#8211; real low. For potential investors  at current levels, a 10% or even 20% gain is &#8220;only&#8221; $3.60 or $7.20 away.\u00a0 That type of move is significant, but it would still not be strong enough to take the price above the 200 day MA at $48.89. Maybe that is a good thing for the buyers.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The warning is that with the price is down so low for a reason.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A better trade might be see what the number says. If the reaction is positive and the price moves above the 100 hour MA at $36.10 and the 200 hour MA at $37.37, look to buy with a stop on a move back below the 100 hour MA. The stock would target the 100 day MA at $41.33. If it gets above that, the 200 day MA becomes a major target at $48.89.\u00a0 Other targets are at $45 and $47.25.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>What will determine the reaction?<\/p>\n<p>My focus will be on whether Hill provides a convincing timetable for sales stabilization, improvement in China and stronger underlying margins. Last quarter\u2019s reported earnings of $0.72 included a $0.52 tariff-recovery benefit, making the underlying profitability picture especially important.<\/p>\n<p>The earnings release may give buyers their shot. The outlook will help determine whether they take it\u2014and the moving averages will help traders judge whether they can hold it.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nike reports earnings after the close today, with the stock near its lowest level since February 2014. Expectations are subdued, but the bigger question is whether CEO Elliott Hill can give investors&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439217","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439217"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439217\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439217"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439217"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439217"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}