{"id":439290,"date":"2026-10-02T20:04:41","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T13:04:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/yields-move-lower-stock-futures-point-to-a-higher-open-the-usd-falls-after-jobs-report-439290\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T20:04:41","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T13:04:41","slug":"yields-move-lower-stock-futures-point-to-a-higher-open-the-usd-falls-after-jobs-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/yields-move-lower-stock-futures-point-to-a-higher-open-the-usd-falls-after-jobs-report-439290\/","title":{"rendered":"Yields move lower. Stock futures point to a higher open. The USD falls after jobs report"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, down from 133,000 in August (revised from 162K), as private-sector hiring was partially offset by another decline in government employment. The private sector added 46,000 jobs, while government payrolls fell 17,000.<\/p>\n<p>The headline shows a sharp slowdown from August. Looking underneath the number, however, the picture is mixed: construction, manufacturing and health care continued to add jobs, while information, financial activities and professional and business services lost ground.<\/p>\n<p>September: Where jobs were added<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Private education and health services: +20,000, including 23,000 in health care and social assistance.<\/li>\n<li>Construction: +11,000<\/li>\n<li>Leisure and hospitality: +10,000<\/li>\n<li>Manufacturing: +9,000<\/li>\n<li>Transportation and warehousing: +7,600<\/li>\n<li>Other services: +6,000<\/li>\n<li>Retail trade: +5,800<\/li>\n<li>Wholesale trade: +5,000<\/li>\n<li>Utilities: +500<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>September: Where jobs were lost<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Government: \u221217,000<\/li>\n<li>Information: \u221210,000<\/li>\n<li>Professional and business services: \u22129,000, including a 10,900-job decline in temporary help services.<\/li>\n<li>Financial activities: \u22127,000<\/li>\n<li>Mining and logging: \u22122,000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The three-month trend: Modest growth, concentrated hiring<\/p>\n<p>Over July\u2013September, nonfarm payrolls increased by 152,000, averaging approximately 51,000 jobs per month. That included July\u2019s 10,000 decline, August\u2019s 133,000 gain and September\u2019s 29,000 increase.<\/p>\n<p>Private employers added 163,000 jobs, averaging approximately 54,000 per month. Government employment declined by 11,000, averaging a loss of approximately 3,700 per month.<\/p>\n<p>The sector breakdown shows where hiring has held up\u2014and where weakness has persisted:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Private education and health services:+72,000, averaging +24,000 per month. Health care and social assistance contributed 71,400, accounting for nearly all the sector\u2019s net growth.<\/li>\n<li>Construction:+45,000, averaging +15,000 per month. Jobs were added in all three months, although September\u2019s increase was the smallest.<\/li>\n<li>Manufacturing:+44,000, averaging approximately +14,700 per month. Hiring remained positive each month but slowed from 20,000 in July to 15,000 in August and 9,000 in September.<\/li>\n<li>Transportation and warehousing:+21,200, averaging approximately +7,100 per month. Employment increased throughout the period.<\/li>\n<li>Wholesale trade:+19,300, averaging approximately +6,400 per month, with gains in each month.<\/li>\n<li>Other services:+15,000, averaging +5,000 per month.<\/li>\n<li>Leisure and hospitality:+9,000, averaging +3,000 per month. August and September gains largely recovered July\u2019s sharp decline.<\/li>\n<li>Retail trade:+6,300, averaging +2,100 per month. Hiring was uneven, with an August decline between two months of gains.<\/li>\n<li>Utilities:+3,700, averaging approximately +1,200 per month.<\/li>\n<li>Mining and logging:\u22122,000, averaging approximately \u2212700 per month.<\/li>\n<li>Government:\u221211,000, averaging approximately \u22123,700 per month. August\u2019s increase failed to offset losses in July and September.<\/li>\n<li>Professional and business services:\u221220,000, averaging approximately \u22126,700 per month, with declines in all three months. Temporary help services lost 20,700 jobs, averaging \u22126,900 per month.<\/li>\n<li>Information:\u221224,000, averaging \u22128,000 per month, as August and September losses outweighed July\u2019s gain.<\/li>\n<li>Financial activities:\u221226,000, averaging approximately \u22128,700 per month, with employment falling each month.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>What does it mean for the market?<\/p>\n<p>The labor market is still adding jobs on balance, but the pace is modest. Education and health services, construction and manufacturing added a combined 161,000 jobs over the three months\u2014more than the total nonfarm payroll gain. Losses elsewhere pulled the headline lower.<\/p>\n<p>There is also evidence of slowing momentum within the sectors still hiring. Construction and manufacturing added jobs each month, but their gains became progressively smaller. Meanwhile, financial activities and professional and business services continued to shed workers (AI related?).<\/p>\n<p>For traders, that gives the softer headline some support beneath the surface. The report shows concentrated hiring and persistent pockets of weakness, which could temper expectations for further Fed tightening. The wage and inflation picture still matters, however, in determining how much room the Fed has to respond.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>US Treasury yields are lower<\/p>\n<p>The modest declines ahead of the jobs report have become more pronounced, led by the shorter maturities:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2-year: 4.7246% now, versus 4.7809% in the Kickstart post. Down an additional 5.63 basis points, and now down 6.24 basis points on the day.<\/li>\n<li>5-year: 4.9373% now, versus 4.9926%. Down an additional 5.53 basis points, and now down 6.77 basis points on the day.<\/li>\n<li>10-year: 5.1842% now , versus 5.2242%. Down an additional 4.00 basis points, and now down 4.98 basis points on the day.<\/li>\n<li>30-year: 5.5738% now, versus 5.5989%. Down an additional 2.51 basis points, and now down 2.92 basis points on the day.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The larger decline at the front end is consistent with traders marking down expectations for further Fed tightening. The market is now pricing in 16% chance of a hike in October.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>US dollar is lower<\/p>\n<p>The USD was mixed ahead of the report. It is now lower against all the major currencies shown except the CAD, with its earlier gain against the Canadian dollar narrowing.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>EURUSD: Up to 1.1247 from 1.1241. The euro is now 0.05% higher on the day, turning the dollar modestly lower.<\/li>\n<li>USDJPY: Down to 157.26 from 157.77. Its daily decline has widened to 0.51%, versus 0.19% earlier.<\/li>\n<li>GBPUSD: Up to 1.3223 from 1.3209. Its daily gain has increased to 0.18%, versus 0.08%.<\/li>\n<li>USDCHF: Down to 0.8263 from 0.8282. Its daily decline has widened to 0.53%, versus 0.30%.<\/li>\n<li>USDCAD: Down to 1.4228 from 1.4240. The USD remains 0.06% higher on the day, but that is below the earlier 0.15% gain.<\/li>\n<li>AUDUSD: Up to 0.6960 from 0.6937. Its daily gain has widened to 0.45%, versus 0.12%.<\/li>\n<li>NZDUSD: Up to 0.5622 from 0.5609. Its daily gain has increased to 0.34%, versus 0.11%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>US stock futures are higher<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Dow: Now +425 points, versus +208 earlier. An additional 217 points higher.<\/li>\n<li>Nasdaq 100: Now +357 points, versus +170 earlier. An additional 187 points higher.<\/li>\n<li>S&amp;P 500: Now +67 points, versus +36 earlier. An additional 31 points higher.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The initial reaction has been lower yields, a broadly weaker dollar and stronger stock futures. That combination suggests traders are taking some comfort from reduced pressure for additional Fed tightening. The next question is whether those moves can hold as the North American session progresses.<\/p>\n<p>Some technicals in Forex:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>EURUSD: The EURUSD\u00a0remains below the high for the day at 1.1269. The current price is trading at 1.1858. With a sharp declines yesterday, the price has moved away from its falling 100 hour moving average at 1.1319. The June 2026 low price was at 1.13245. All those levels would need to be broken &#8211; and stay broken &#8211; \u00a0to give the buyers more hope for more upside.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>USDJPY: The USDJPY fell below and\u00a0away from its 200 hour moving average at 157.704, and its 100 hour moving average at 157.513. The broken 38.2% retracement 157.136 is also been broken. There are swing level is down 156.36 up to 156.655 as the next target on further selling.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>USDCAD: The USDCAD moved lower but only to test it rising 100 hour moving average at 1.42058. The price stalled the fall near that level and currently trades at 1.4225. The price is down on the day, but the price still needs to get and stay below the 100 hour MA to give the sellers more hope that the upside trend has lost some of its momentum.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>USDCHF: The USDCHF moved below the 200 hour MA earlier today and stayed below that MA (a trend line was also broken). The momentum took the price to a low 0.8228 which was short of the 38.2% retracement of the trend move higher from the August 20 low at 0.82167. Getting below that retracement gives seller more control.\u00a0 The 200 hour MA is now stronger resistance. Traders who are short would not want a move back above that level technically.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>AUDUSD: The AUDUSD has moved higher and is testing its 100 hour MA at 0.69675. The high has reache 0.6970 just above that target. The current price is at 0.6959.\u00a0 \u00a0If the price is to go higher, it needs to get and stay above that 100 hour moving average. The 100 hour moving averages also within a swing area between 0.6962\u00a0and 0.6978.a break above would have traders looking toward the falling 200 hour moving average at 0.7007. The price fell below the 200 hour moving average back on September 10 and has trended to the downside since then. The high price in September was at 0.72374. The low price reached yesterday extended to 0.69033.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>                            This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, down from 133,000 in August (revised from 162K), as private-sector hiring was partially offset by another decline in government employment. The private sector&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439290","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439290","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439290"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439290\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439290"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439290"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439290"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}