{"id":439380,"date":"2026-10-05T20:40:18","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T13:40:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/widening-us-credit-spreads-flash-an-ominous-signal-for-the-nasdaq-439380\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T20:40:18","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T13:40:18","slug":"widening-us-credit-spreads-flash-an-ominous-signal-for-the-nasdaq","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/widening-us-credit-spreads-flash-an-ominous-signal-for-the-nasdaq-439380\/","title":{"rendered":"Widening US credit spreads flash an ominous signal for the Nasdaq"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Nasdaq has found some support from dovish Fed comments that pushed back
\n against an October rate hike and a softer than expected NFP report that lowered
\n the probability for the central bank action further. <\/p>\n

Keep in mind, though, that the geopolitical picture hasn\u2019t changed much as
\n the US-Iran stalemate continues to drag on. There are ominous tensions under
\n the hood as US credit spreads have been widening and that generally preceded
\n stock market\u2019s corrections.<\/p>\n

Chart: Nasdaq 100 vs US credit spreads (blue – inverted)<\/p>\n

\n

We can see the
\n divergence between credit spreads and the Nasdaq in the chart above. Credit
\n spreads are a useful indicator of financial conditions and risk appetite. When
\n growth expectations improve, credit spreads tighten and the risk sentiment
\n turns positive. On the other hand, when growth expectations deteriorate, credit
\n spreads widen and the risk sentiment turns negative.<\/p>\n

This week, we don\u2019t have much on the agenda, so the focus will likely be
\n on US-Iran developments. A breakthrough in negotiations
\n would be positive for the Nasdaq, as it would trigger further unwinding of
\n aggressive Fed rate hike expectations and improve the outlook for the economy.
\n Conversely, a prolonged stalemate or a deterioration in the situation could
\n continue to weigh on growth expectations and pressure the Nasdaq.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

NASDAQ TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On
\n the daily chart, <\/a>we can see <\/a>the Nasdaq printed a new all-time high recently but failed to extend the
\n gains. We have a major upward trendline defining the bullish structure on this
\n timeframe. If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the
\n trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into new record
\n highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend
\n the correction into the 28,750 level next. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

NASDAQ TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On
\n the 4 hour chart, <\/a>we have the
\n swing low around the 30,100 level that could act as support. We can expect the
\n buyers to step in around the swing low, with a defined risk below it, to keep
\n pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break
\n lower to pile in for a drop into the major trendline next.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

NASDAQ TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n

\n

On the 1 hour chart, we
\n have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback. The sellers will
\n likely lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above it, to keep pushing
\n into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to
\n increase the bullish bets into new record highs. The red lines define average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>we get
\n the US ISM Services PMI. On Wednesday, we have the FOMC meeting minutes. On
\n Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude
\n the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 The Nasdaq has found some support from dovish Fed comments that pushed back against an October rate hike and a softer than expected NFP report that lowered the probability…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439380"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439380\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}