{"id":439497,"date":"2026-10-06T11:54:18","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T04:54:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/chart-of-the-day-treasury-yields-push-to-multi-decade-highs-despite-fading-fed-hike-bets-439497\/"},"modified":"2026-10-06T11:54:18","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T04:54:18","slug":"chart-of-the-day-treasury-yields-push-to-multi-decade-highs-despite-fading-fed-hike-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/chart-of-the-day-treasury-yields-push-to-multi-decade-highs-despite-fading-fed-hike-bets-439497\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart of the day: Treasury yields push to multi-decade highs despite fading Fed hike bets"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The bond market continues to remain a headache for investors, as long-end Treasury yields are threatening to break higher again this week.<\/p>\n

The softer US jobs report<\/a> on Friday last week was\u00a0exactly the kind of data that should have taken some pressure off rates. Non-farm payrolls rose by just 29k,\u00a0well below expectations around 90k, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. Adding to that, wage growth also cooled.<\/p>\n

And initially, the bond market reacted exactly as you might expect it to. 10-year Treasury yields fell sharply towards 5.16% on the release as traders scaled back expectations for another Fed rate hike in October.<\/p>\n

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However, that relief was rather short-lived.<\/p>\n

Yields quickly reversed the entire drop and have since pushed back above 5.30%. I would argue that the speed of that reversal is rather telling.<\/p>\n

Weak payrolls may be enough to change up the conversation surrounding the Fed in the near-term, but they weren’t enough to convince investors to hold long-end Treasuries.<\/p>\n

If you zoom out, the move looks even more significant.<\/p>\n

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10-year Treasury yields are now breaking back above 5.30% to push to their highest levels since 2002.<\/p>\n

Now, this is not just another volatile reaction to one economic data\/report. It is important to recognise that the bond market is sending a message that even a Fed pause does not automatically mean lower yields.<\/p>\n

Traders are still convinced that the Fed is not likely to raise interest rates in October, with market pricing assigning only around a 24% chance of a 25 bps move. That’s a key thing to note.<\/p>\n

The rise in yields isn’t necessarily the bond market betting on another rate hike in October. Instead, it suggests that investors are becoming more reluctant to assume that a Fed pause will automatically translate into lower borrowing costs further out the curve.<\/p>\n

Fiscal concerns and greater uncertainty over where inflation ultimately settles remain part of the big picture problem. Meanwhile, heavy Treasury issuance and a rising term premium are adding another layer to that and forcing investors to demand more compensation for holding longer-dated government debt.<\/p>\n

For now, the Fed may be afforded more room to pause on its policy setting. But unless those broader pressures ease, the long-end of the bond market may continue to do the tightening for it.<\/p>\n

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This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The bond market continues to remain a headache for investors, as long-end Treasury yields are threatening to break higher again this week. The softer US jobs report on Friday last week was\u00a0exactly…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439497","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439497","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439497"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439497\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439497"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439497"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439497"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}