{"id":439540,"date":"2026-10-06T16:46:27","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T09:46:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-price-action-in-gold-remains-rangebound-as-us-iran-stalemate-and-cpi-risk-cap-the-upside-439540\/"},"modified":"2026-10-06T16:46:27","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T09:46:27","slug":"the-price-action-in-gold-remains-rangebound-as-us-iran-stalemate-and-cpi-risk-cap-the-upside","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-price-action-in-gold-remains-rangebound-as-us-iran-stalemate-and-cpi-risk-cap-the-upside-439540\/","title":{"rendered":"The price action in gold remains rangebound as US-Iran stalemate and CPI risk cap the upside"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gold briefly probed below last week\u2019s low yesterday but eventually erased
\n the losses as oil prices and Treasury yields pulled back. <\/p>\n

The US-Iran developments and Fed interest rates repricing have been the
\n main drivers for a long time. The Middle East situation is now relatively calm
\n as there\u2019s been a de-escalation since the UN General Assembly, although the
\n usual strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz persist as Iran tries to
\n defend its blockade. <\/p>\n

On the monetary policy side, Fed\u2019s Williams and Fed\u2019s Jefferson pushed
\n back against the October rate hike expectations and the softer than expected US
\n NFP report on Friday reduced the hike probabilities to just 21%.<\/p>\n

The dovish repricing helped gold as real yields rebounded but the ongoing
\n US-Iran negotiations and the US CPI risk next week, could still cap the upside
\n in the short-term. A soft CPI will likely give gold another boost on a dovish
\n repricing, but a hot one without an improvement in the Middle East could send
\n it to new lows. <\/p>\n

Given the light calendar this week, the focus will likely be on US-Iran
\n developments, so the price action could remain mostly rangebound.<\/p>\n

If we get a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, then we can expect oil
\n prices to drop significantly and give gold a boost on lower rate hike
\n expectations. Another escalation, on the other hand, will likely send crude oil
\n higher and weigh on the precious metal. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that gold<\/a>(CFD contract) is
\n consolidating near the lows. We might get a pullback into the trendline again.
\n We can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above
\n it, to position for a drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other hand,
\n will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the
\n 4,700 level next, with the 4,400 level as the first target. <\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we can
\n see that the price bounced from last week\u2019s low. If we get another pullback
\n into the 4,110 low, we can expect the buyers to step back in, with a defined
\n risk below the low, to keep pushing into the downward trendline. The sellers,
\n on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets
\n into the 3,885 level next.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we
\n have a minor resistance zone around the 4,165 level. If the price gets there,
\n we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above it to position
\n for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break
\n higher to target a pullback into the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Tomorrow<\/a>we
\n have the FOMC meeting minutes. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims
\n figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan
\n Consumer Sentiment survey.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 Gold briefly probed below last week\u2019s low yesterday but eventually erased the losses as oil prices and Treasury yields pulled back. The US-Iran developments and Fed interest rates repricing…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439540"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439540\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}