{"id":439544,"date":"2026-10-06T19:21:30","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T12:21:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/morning-kickstart-stocks-eye-records-as-oil-and-treasury-yields-fall-439544\/"},"modified":"2026-10-06T19:21:30","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T12:21:30","slug":"morning-kickstart-stocks-eye-records-as-oil-and-treasury-yields-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/morning-kickstart-stocks-eye-records-as-oil-and-treasury-yields-fall-439544\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Kickstart: Stocks eye records as oil and Treasury yields fall"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs\u2014EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD\u2014from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.<\/p>\n<p>U.S. stock futures are pointing higher to start the North American session, with the Nasdaq 100 positioned for another record close if the gains hold through the trading day. The S&amp;P 500 is also approaching its record closing level of 7798.98.<\/p>\n<p>The move comes with Treasury yields lower across the curve and crude oil extending its decline despite renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. That combination gives stock buyers a more supportive backdrop, although the Middle East remains a source of headline risk.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. dollar is mostly lower. The euro and pound are leading the gains against the greenback, while the yen is the exception.<\/p>\n<p>U.S. stock futures point higher<\/p>\n<p>At approximately 7:38 a.m. ET, futures were implying:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Dow industrial average: Up 235 points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>S&amp;P 500: Up 30 points, putting the index near its record closing level of 7798.98.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Nasdaq 100: Up 138 points, positioning the index for another record close.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For the S&amp;P, 7798.98 is a closing benchmark to watch. Trading above it during the session would be encouraging for buyers. Holding the gains into the close would confirm a new record closing level.<\/p>\n<p>The dollar is mostly lower<\/p>\n<p>The dollar is lower against six of the seven major currencies, although the moves against the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc are modest:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>EURUSD: 1.1259, up 0.34%. The dollar is lower against the euro.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>GBPUSD: 1.3263, up 0.33%. The dollar is lower against the pound.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>NZDUSD: 0.5612, up 0.27%. The dollar is lower against the New Zealand dollar.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>AUDUSD: 0.6977, up 0.11%. The dollar is lower against the Australian dollar.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>USDCHF: 0.8303, down 0.02%. The dollar is marginally lower against the Swiss franc.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>USDCAD: 1.4255, down 0.01%. The dollar is little changed against the Canadian dollar.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>USDJPY: 158.06, up 0.10%. The dollar is higher against the yen.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Canadian dollar is barely participating despite the more positive equity backdrop. Lower crude oil is a competing influence for the oil-sensitive currency.<\/p>\n<p>Currency ranges<\/p>\n<p>The three major pairs have traded within these ranges:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>EURUSD: 1.1203 to 1.1266 \u2014 63 pips.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>USDJPY: 157.78 to 158.24 \u2014 46 pips.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>GBPUSD: 1.3202 to 1.3269 \u2014 67 pips.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>EURUSD and GBPUSD are trading toward the upper end of their morning ranges. Buyers have the stronger hand within those ranges, but extending above the highs\u2014and staying above\u2014would be needed to show further upside momentum.<\/p>\n<p>Treasury yields retreat<\/p>\n<p>U.S. yields are lower across the curve:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>2-year: 4.7933%, down 3.97 basis points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>5-year: 5.0194%, down 4.66 basis points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>10-year: 5.2624%, down 4.86 basis points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>30-year: 5.6276%, down 3.64 basis points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The retreat offers some relief from higher borrowing costs. For traders, the next question is whether yields can hold those declines through the data and Fed commentary.<\/p>\n<p>Middle East: Attacks continue, but oil falls<\/p>\n<p>Saudi Arabia acknowledged attacks on airports in Jazan and Najran that left three people lightly injured. The Iran-backed Houthis also claimed strikes on Riyadh\u2019s airport and an Aramco refinery. Those broader claims should be distinguished from the airport damage confirmed by Saudi authorities.<\/p>\n<p>Saudi-backed Yemeni forces have reported advances around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, an important shipping route connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. The fighting keeps Saudi energy infrastructure and shipping routes firmly in focus.<\/p>\n<p>Why is crude lower despite those threats? Reuters reports that improving Middle Eastern exports and the G7\u2019s planned release of 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves are easing immediate supply concerns. Saudi Arabia also reported increased flows through its East-West Pipeline, an alternative export route to the Red Sea.<\/p>\n<p>The market is weighing the threat of disruption against the supplies that continue to reach buyers. My takeaway is that the bearish price reaction matters: the attacks have not been enough to sustain an oil rally. A confirmed interruption to production or exports could change that balance quickly.<\/p>\n<p>Commodities and Bitcoin<\/p>\n<p>Crude oil is the clear downside mover, while precious metals and Bitcoin are higher:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>WTI crude futures: $87.65, down $1.78 or 1.99%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Gold: Around $4,169.47, up $28.70 or 0.69%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Silver: $61.44, up $0.39 or 0.64%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Bitcoin: $86,234, up $478 or 0.56%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Gold is moving higher alongside the softer dollar and lower yields.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin remains within reach of recent highs<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin remains near its recent high at $87,374. That level needs to be broken\u2014and the price needs to stay above\u2014to increase the bullish bias and open the door for further upside momentum.<\/p>\n<p>Buyers are within striking distance, but they still need to deliver the next shove. Until resistance breaks, sellers have a level to lean against with risk defined and limited.<\/p>\n<p>Crude oil approaches key downside targets<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Technically, crude oil futures are approaching two important downside targets:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>$86.83: The 50% midpoint of the move higher from the July low.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>$86.03: The 100-day moving average.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The low today has reached $87.10 so far, leaving the price above those targets.<\/p>\n<p>The midpoint is the first test. Holding above it would give buyers a level to lean against with risk defined. A break below would increase the bearish bias and bring the 100-day moving average into focus.<\/p>\n<p>For newer traders, these levels help measure the selling pressure. Sellers remain in control, but buyers could look to slow the decline as the price approaches support. Whether support holds or breaks will help define the next move.<\/p>\n<p>North American calendar<\/p>\n<p>Trade data, a fresh labor-market reading and Canadian business activity are on the calendar:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>8:15 a.m. ET: ADP weekly employment update. Prior: 20,000.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>8:30 a.m. ET: U.S. August trade balance. Expected deficit: $102.0 billion. Prior deficit: $88.6 billion.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>8:30 a.m. ET: Canadian August trade balance. Expected surplus: C$1.55 billion. Prior surplus: C$0.77 billion.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>10:00 a.m. ET: Canadian September Ivey PMI. Prior: 62.7 unadjusted and 64.3 seasonally adjusted.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>1:00 p.m. ET: U.S. Treasury auction of $58 billion in 3-year notes.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A wider U.S. trade deficit could weigh on the net-export contribution to GDP, although the details of imports and exports will matter.<\/p>\n<p>Fed speakers throughout the day<\/p>\n<p>All times are ET:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>9:05 a.m.: John Williams, New York Fed president, moderates a panel discussion.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>10:40 a.m.: Alberto Musalem, St. Louis Fed president, delivers opening remarks.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>10:45 a.m.: Michelle Bowman, Fed vice chair for supervision, speaks on modernizing regulation and supervision.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>1:15 p.m.: Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed president, participates in a fireside chat.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>7:00 p.m.: Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed president, moderates an event.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Traders will be listening for any comments on inflation, growth and the policy outlook. Several appearances involve moderation or regulation, so the scheduled events may offer different amounts of monetary-policy guidance.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs\u2014EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD\u2014from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439544","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439544"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439544\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}