{"id":439551,"date":"2026-10-06T22:40:05","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T15:40:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/what-next-for-crude-oil-futures-crude-oil-sellers-take-control-but-key-midpoint-support-holds-439551\/"},"modified":"2026-10-06T22:40:05","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T15:40:05","slug":"what-next-for-crude-oil-futures-crude-oil-sellers-take-control-but-key-midpoint-support-holds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/what-next-for-crude-oil-futures-crude-oil-sellers-take-control-but-key-midpoint-support-holds-439551\/","title":{"rendered":"What next for crude oil futures?  Crude oil sellers take control, but key midpoint support holds"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Crude oil is trading lower in trading today and in doing so, is breaking below some key technical targets. In the video above, I talk to the technical levels in play and outline what you should look for as a trader.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The Fundamental picture is focused on the positive. <\/p>\n<p>The more recent fundamental picture for crude oil is helping to push the price lower as continued diplomacy, reassurance over Saudi oil flows and last week\u2019s agreement to release emergency energy reserves help ease immediate supply concerns.<\/p>\n<p>Qatar says the US and Iran remain engaged in talks, while Iranian Interior Minister Momeni described discussions with Qatar\u2019s Emir as \u201cconstructive.\u201d Those headlines suggest diplomacy remains active despite the ongoing conflict, giving traders a reason to reduce some of the geopolitical premium built into oil prices.<\/p>\n<p>Adding to that pressure is last Friday\u2019s European-backed G7 agreement to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel from emergency reserves over four months, with a substantial diesel release planned within the first 20 days. French President Emmanuel Macron chaired the meeting, which followed US pressure on Europe to release diesel stocks. The G7 also pledged to avoid energy export restrictions, easing concerns over a potential US diesel export ban. The expected supply offers near-term relief, although it remains unclear how much represents additional barrels beyond earlier commitments. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/g7-release-100-million-barrels-diesel-other-reserves-through-iea-2026-10-02\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" rel=\"follow\">reuters.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>On the supply side, Saudi Arabia\u2019s energy minister says its East-West pipeline is carrying approximately 5.8 million barrels per day, compared with capacity of 7 million. Argus reports that three pumping stations sustained damage in the September 10 drone attack, but the pipeline itself was not damaged. Continued flows help temper fears of a more prolonged disruption.<\/p>\n<p>US Energy Secretary Chris Wright also said he believes diesel prices peaked a few weeks ago, although he cautioned that the Strait of Hormuz remains a conflict zone. Supply risks remain, but the combination of reserve releases, continued Saudi flows and diplomatic headlines is giving sellers the reasons to push lower.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>What about the technicals?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>The fundamental backdrop has helped push crude oil lower, with prices down around 1.5% on the day and trading above and below the $88 level. Technically, sellers have taken more control, but buyers have found a level to lean against.<\/p>\n<p>On the hourly chart, the price first broke below the swing level at $88.59, followed by the rising trendline near $88.35. Those breaks gave sellers the go-ahead to push toward the next downside target: the 50% midpoint near $86.83. The low today reached $86.86, stalling just above that support.<\/p>\n<p>The sellers made their break. The buyers responded at the next key target. Those moves have now defined the boundaries for the next trading shove.<\/p>\n<p>Buyers and sellers have levels to lean against<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Buyers are leaning against $86.83. Stay above that level and they have a foundation for a recovery. Break below it and their support gives way.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Sellers are leaning against the underside of the broken trendline, near $88.35 at the time of the break, and the swing level at $88.59. Staying below those levels keeps the bearish bias intact.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For newer traders, these levels help define and limit risk. Buyers leaning against support need that support to hold. Sellers leaning against broken support need it to act as resistance. If the price moves through those levels and stays through them, the trade needs to be reassessed.<\/p>\n<p>What would open the door for more downside?<\/p>\n<p>A break below $86.83, followed by an inability to recover above it, would give sellers another technical shove. The next downside targets would be:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>100-day moving average near $86.04<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>200-day moving average at $82.52<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The 100-day moving average would be the next test. Sellers would need to clear that hurdle before looking toward the lower 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n<p>What would buyers need to do?<\/p>\n<p>Holding the midpoint is a start. However, buyers need to get back above the broken trendline and $88.59 swing level\u2014and stay above\u2014to show they are taking back some control.<\/p>\n<p>That would turn today\u2019s downside break into a failed break. Sellers who leaned against resistance would have reason to reassess, opening the door for a recovery toward:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Falling 100-hour moving average at $90.47<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>200-hour moving average at $91.64<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For now, sellers have the upper hand, with the break below the trendline and swing level providing the most recent bearish catalyst. However, the midpoint held on the first test. Can sellers keep the pressure on and break that support, or will buyers use it to build a recovery? Watch the levels for the next trading clues.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crude oil is trading lower in trading today and in doing so, is breaking below some key technical targets. In the video above, I talk to the technical levels in play and&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439551","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439551"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439551\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439551"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439551"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439551"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}