{"id":439629,"date":"2026-10-07T17:13:49","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T10:13:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/crude-oil-rebounds-as-persistent-supply-risks-continue-to-outweigh-improving-physical-exports-439629\/"},"modified":"2026-10-07T17:13:49","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T10:13:49","slug":"crude-oil-rebounds-as-persistent-supply-risks-continue-to-outweigh-improving-physical-exports","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/crude-oil-rebounds-as-persistent-supply-risks-continue-to-outweigh-improving-physical-exports-439629\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude oil rebounds as persistent supply risks continue to outweigh improving physical exports"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Crude oil came
\n under some pressure yesterday and at some point, even threatened a major breakdown
\n below the rising channel. There was no reason for the downside given the
\n US-Iran stalemate and persistent disruptions. Sure enough, oil prices rebounded
\n and eventually erased almost all the weekly losses. <\/p>\n

In terms of upside
\n catalysts, there\u2019s been an escalation in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, with
\n strikes targeting airports and reports of damage to energy infrastructure. <\/p>\n

At the same time,
\n a developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico is threatening US oil and gas
\n production as well as refining capacity. The storm has already prompted
\n precautionary production shutdowns, while Reuters estimates that facilities
\n accounting for around 15% of US crude production and 5% of natural-gas output
\n could be affected. Several major refineries are also at risk of disruption.<\/p>\n

The US-Iran
\n negotiations remain at a stalemate. Tehran has made reopening the Strait of
\n Hormuz conditional on the US meeting a number of demands, while Washington is
\n insisting on meaningful concessions from Iran, particularly on its nuclear
\n enrichment capacity. US Vice President JD Vance said this week that Washington
\n wants concrete action from Tehran rather than assurances, while Trump has
\n rejected Iran’s latest proposal.<\/p>\n

This leaves the
\n oil market caught between improving physical exports and persistent disruption
\n risks. Middle Eastern crude flows have recovered significantly, but attacks on
\n infrastructure and shipping continue to threaten the reliability of those
\n supplies. Until there is meaningful progress in the US-Iran talks and a clearer
\n path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the market is likely to maintain a
\n sizeable geopolitical and supply-risk premium.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL
\n TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that crude oil<\/a>(CFD contract) dipped into the
\n lower bound of the channel and rebounded as the buyers stepped in, with a defined
\n risk below it, to position for a rally into the 110.00 resistance. The sellers
\n will need a break below the lower bound of the channel to open the door for new
\n lows and target a drop into the 68.00 support next, with the 80.00 handle as
\n the first target.<\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we have
\n a minor downward trendline acting as resistance. The sellers will likely lean
\n on the trendline, with a defined risk above it, to target a break below the
\n lower bound of the channel and new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will
\n look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 110.00
\n resistance, with the 96.77 level as the first target. <\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, there\u2019s
\n not much we can add as the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around
\n the trendline, while the buyers will need a break to open the door for new
\n highs. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>we
\n have the FOMC meeting minutes. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims
\n figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan
\n Consumer Sentiment survey. The focus, though, remains on the Middle East
\n developments.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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