{"id":439654,"date":"2026-10-08T05:44:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T22:44:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/ny-fed-survey-us-one-year-inflation-expectations-jump-to-3-9-highest-since-may-2023-439654\/"},"modified":"2026-10-08T05:44:48","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T22:44:48","slug":"ny-fed-survey-us-one-year-inflation-expectations-jump-to-3-9-highest-since-may-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/ny-fed-survey-us-one-year-inflation-expectations-jump-to-3-9-highest-since-may-2023-439654\/","title":{"rendered":"NY Fed survey: US one-year inflation expectations jump to 3.9%, highest since May 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The jump in near-term expectations lands squarely on the Fed&#8217;s main stated worry and strengthens the case for another hike before year end, supporting front-end Treasury yields and the dollar. Rising expected gasoline price growth shows how energy costs are feeding household inflation psychology, which makes oil supply disruptions a more direct risk to the Fed outlook. Stable five-year expectations limit the alarm for longer-dated bonds for now. Consumers also turned less bullish on equities, with fewer expecting stock prices to be higher in a year.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Earlier:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/central-banks\/icymi-fed-minutes-most-officials-see-another-hike-by-year-end-after-unanimous-rise-to-3-75-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"follow\">ICYMI: Fed minutes: most officials see another hike by year end after unanimous rise to 3.75-4%<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"> American households now expect prices to rise half as fast again as their pay over the coming year, the kind of gap that keeps the Fed leaning towards higher rates.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>Median one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9% in September from 3.6%, the highest since May 2023; three-year expectations edged up to 3.3% and five-year held at 3.0%<\/li>\n<li>Expected price rises increased for gas (4.8%), food (5.5%), medical care (9.2%), college (7.5%) and rent (6.8%)<\/li>\n<li>Labour market expectations improved: perceived job loss probability fell to 13.5%, its lowest since December 2024, and job finding expectations rose<\/li>\n<li>Expected earnings growth fell to 2.6%, while expected spending growth rose to 5.5%, the highest since May 2023<\/li>\n<li>Households reported a worse financial situation and expect further deterioration; perceived credit access worsened<\/li>\n<li>The survey came hours before Fed minutes showing most officials see another rate hike as likely by year end<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">US consumers&#8217; expectations for inflation over the next year rose to their highest level in more than three years in September, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/microeconomics\/sce#\/\" rel=\"follow\">Survey of Consumer Expectations<\/a> released on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.9%, the highest reading since May 2023, while the three-year measure rose 0.1 point to 3.3%. Five-year expectations were unchanged at 3.0%. Disagreement among respondents widened at all horizons, and uncertainty about inflation increased over one and three years.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The rise was broad across household costs. Expected price growth increased for gasoline to 4.8%, food to 5.5%, medical care to 9.2%, rent to 6.8% and college costs to 7.5%, the last a jump of 1.4 points in a single month.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The survey points to a squeeze on household budgets. Expected earnings growth fell 0.3 point to 2.6%, well below expected inflation, yet households anticipate lifting their spending by 5.5% over the coming year, the highest since May 2023. Respondents reported a worse financial situation than a year ago and expect conditions to deteriorate further. They also saw credit as harder to obtain, although the perceived chance of missing a minimum debt payment fell to 12.2%.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Labour market expectations improved. The perceived probability of losing one&#8217;s job in the next year fell to 13.5%, the lowest since December 2024, while expectations of finding a new job and of quitting voluntarily both rose. The share expecting higher unemployment a year from now eased to 43.9%.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The release arrived hours before minutes of the Fed&#8217;s September meeting, which showed officials unanimously backed a quarter-point hike to 3.75-4%, with most judging another increase likely by year end. Several officials in the minutes noted elevated short-term inflation expectations, and some warned that more than five years of above-target inflation could begin to influence expectations and wage and price decisions. One-year expectations have climbed from 3.0% in February, so September&#8217;s reading gives that concern more weight.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The stability of five-year expectations remains the Fed&#8217;s key reassurance. Whether that anchor holds as energy prices stay high will be central to the debate at the 27-28 October policy meeting.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">New York Fed.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The jump in near-term expectations lands squarely on the Fed&#8217;s main stated worry and strengthens the case for another hike before year end, supporting front-end Treasury yields and the dollar. Rising expected&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439654","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439654"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439654\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}