{"id":439671,"date":"2026-10-08T12:00:06","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T05:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/chart-of-the-day-eur-gbp-breakdown-adds-to-signs-of-euro-weakness-amid-frances-fiscal-troubles-439671\/"},"modified":"2026-10-08T12:00:06","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T05:00:06","slug":"chart-of-the-day-eur-gbp-breakdown-adds-to-signs-of-euro-weakness-amid-frances-fiscal-troubles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/chart-of-the-day-eur-gbp-breakdown-adds-to-signs-of-euro-weakness-amid-frances-fiscal-troubles-439671\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart of the day: EUR\/GBP breakdown adds to signs of euro weakness amid France’s fiscal troubles"},"content":{"rendered":"
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With long-end Treasury yields surging to multi-decade highs, it is easy to pin much of the recent struggles in EUR\/USD on a stronger greenback. But what if the euro is also starting to develop a weakness story of its own? I reckon what is happening with EUR\/GBP is offering traders another clue to that.<\/p>\n

The pair has been under sustained pressure in recent weeks, having fallen to its lowest levels since June last year. And with France’s fiscal troubles continuing to unsettle European bond markets, it is getting more and more difficult to ignore the possibility that traders are starting to price in more euro-specific risks into the equation.<\/p>\n

We already got a good hint of that with EUR\/CHF emerging as another pressure gauge for Europe’s fiscal risks<\/a>. Of course, the franc’s safe haven appeal does complicate that picture somewhat. However, the weakness in EUR\/GBP only serves to add another layer to the argument.<\/p>\n

And I would say the weekly chart for the pair is starting to look rather ominous.<\/p>\n

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The neckline break at the start of July around the 0.8620 level was\u00a0an early warning signal. The break at the time triggered a brief drop below 0.8500 before buyers stepped back in, with the 61.8 Fib retracement around 0.8467 helping to underpin the recovery.<\/p>\n

But now, sellers are looking threatening a break lower again in a push back below 0.8500 this week to test fresh lows since June 2025.<\/p>\n

For the time being, the July low at 0.8454 is still holding somewhat. However, a sustained break below 0.8500 and especially a break of the supportive region around 0.8454-67 would\u00a0reinforce the more bearish technical picture and open up the path towards 0.8300 potentially.<\/p>\n

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On the flip side, the near-term chart indicates that the technical hurdles for a recovery are not too far away with the 100-hour moving average (red line) seen at 0.8485 and 200-hour moving average (blue line) seen at 0.8523. In between that, buyers will also need to get past the 0.8500 hurdle to try and convince of a more meaningful rebound.<\/p>\n

While the focus now is largely on the euro side of the equation, there is one important caveat. That being the UK isn’t exactly a picture of fiscal health itself. UK\u00a0borrowing costs have also been climbing sharply and the upcoming 28 October budget presents another potential headache for sterling.<\/p>\n

And of course, BOE and ECB rate expectations also have a role to play here.\u00a0So, not every move lower in EUR\/GBP can be attributed to France’s fiscal troubles.<\/p>\n

But when both the EUR\/GBP and EUR\/CHF charts are flashing warning signals alongside EUR\/USD, I reckon it is worth questioning whether the market is starting to see the euro as more than just the other side of a stronger dollar. And for now, there isn’t much reassurance to say the least.<\/p>\n

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This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With long-end Treasury yields surging to multi-decade highs, it is easy to pin much of the recent struggles in EUR\/USD on a stronger greenback. But what if the euro is also starting…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439671","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439671"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439671\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439671"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439671"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439671"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}