{"id":439683,"date":"2026-10-08T17:00:07","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T10:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-ceasefire-is-coming-to-an-end-oil-prices-surge-as-trump-weighs-new-strikes-on-iran-439683\/"},"modified":"2026-10-08T17:00:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T10:00:07","slug":"the-ceasefire-is-coming-to-an-end-oil-prices-surge-as-trump-weighs-new-strikes-on-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-ceasefire-is-coming-to-an-end-oil-prices-surge-as-trump-weighs-new-strikes-on-iran-439683\/","title":{"rendered":"The ‘ceasefire’ is coming to an end? Oil prices surge as Trump weighs new strikes on Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Crude oil is
\n surging again as the risk of renewed US military action against Iran increases.
\n Reports that the White House has asked the Pentagon to develop options for
\n strikes against Iranian targets, potentially before the US midterm elections,
\n have raised concerns that the recent period of relative de-escalation could be
\n coming to an end.<\/p>\n

The Pentagon has
\n also reportedly instructed US Central Command (CENTCOM) to complete
\n preparations for potentially resuming major combat operations. While no final
\n decision has been made, the possibility of strikes on Iranian infrastructure,
\n combined with the risk of retaliation against US or Gulf targets, is prompting
\n markets to price a higher probability of disruptions.<\/p>\n

Even without an
\n actual disruption to production or shipments, traders are pricing the
\n possibility that an escalation could threaten Gulf energy infrastructure or
\n shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. <\/p>\n

The key risk for
\n markets is what happens next. A de-escalation could quickly unwind part of the
\n risk premium and push oil prices lower, while a prolonged standoff or direct
\n military confrontation could keep the premium elevated and potentially drive
\n oil significantly higher. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL
\n TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that crude oil<\/a>(CFD contract) rebounded from
\n the lower bound of the channel and extended the gains as the buyers piled in to
\n position for a rally into the 110.00 resistance. If we get another pullback
\n into the bottom trendline, we can expect the buyers to step in again, with a
\n defined risk below the channel, to keep targeting the 110.00 resistance. The
\n sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile
\n in for a drop into the 68.00 support next, with the 80.00 level as the first
\n target.<\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we can
\n see the price broke above the downward trendline and the momentum picked up as the
\n buyers increased the bullish bets into the 96.77 level. If the price gets
\n there, we can expect the sellers to step in, with a defined risk above the
\n level, to position for a drop back into the lower bound of the channel. The
\n buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish
\n bets into the 110.00 resistance. <\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we
\n have a minor upward trendline defining the current momentum that could act as
\n support in case of a pullback. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline,
\n with a defined risk below it, to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers
\n will look for a break to start positioning for a break below lower bound of the
\n channel. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>we
\n get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with
\n the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. The focus, though,
\n remains on the Middle East developments.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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