{"id":439774,"date":"2026-10-09T16:18:42","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T09:18:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/oil-prices-ease-as-traders-unwind-the-escalation-risk-premium-after-trump-rules-out-strikes-on-iran-439774\/"},"modified":"2026-10-09T16:18:42","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T09:18:42","slug":"oil-prices-ease-as-traders-unwind-the-escalation-risk-premium-after-trump-rules-out-strikes-on-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/oil-prices-ease-as-traders-unwind-the-escalation-risk-premium-after-trump-rules-out-strikes-on-iran-439774\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil prices ease as traders unwind the escalation risk premium after Trump rules out strikes on Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The risk premium
\n that traders had started pricing in after reports of potential US strikes on
\n Iran before the midterm elections, is being unwound after yesterday\u2019s de-escalation.\n <\/p>\n

In fact, Trump said on Truth
\n Social that the US was having productive discussions with Tehran and would not
\n attack Iran before the midterm elections.<\/p>\n

This was a good
\n example of how markets work. They price and reprice future expectations based
\n on the incoming information. The escalation risks triggered a strong rally in
\n crude oil on expected retaliations and disruptions, while the de-escalation
\n reversed the earlier expectations and traders unwound their hedges or speculative
\n longs. <\/p>\n

Looking ahead, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said yesterday that
\n Tehran was reviewing Washington’s response to Iran’s proposal and expected to
\n reply within the next few days. A positive outcome would lead to a major
\n selloff in oil prices on expected supply improvement, while a negative outcome
\n wouldn\u2019t change much at this point, although it would likely limit the downside
\n in crude.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL
\n TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that crude oil<\/a>(CFD contract) is pulling
\n back a bit after the de-escalation in tensions following Trump\u2019s post. If the
\n price pulls all the way back to the lower bound of the channel, we can expect
\n the buyers to step in again, with a defined risk below the channel, to keep
\n targeting the 110.00 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
\n see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 68.00 support next,
\n with the 80.00 level as the first target.<\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we can
\n see that the break of the downward trendline opened the door for a rally into the
\n 96.77 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in,
\n with a defined risk above the level, to position for a drop back into the lower
\n bound of the channel. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break
\n higher to increase the bullish bets into the 110.00 resistance next.<\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we can
\n see the price broke below the minor upward trendline after Trump\u2019s post as
\n traders started to unwind the earlier escalation premium. We have another
\n trendline around the 89.50 level that could act as support. The buyers will
\n likely step in there too, with a defined risk below the lower bound of the
\n channel, to keep pushing into the 96.77 level. The sellers, on the other hand,
\n will need to wait for a break below the channel to open the door for new lows. The
\n red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>we
\n conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey,
\n although it\u2019s not expected to be a market-moving release. The focus will remain
\n on US-Iran developments.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 The risk premium that traders had started pricing in after reports of potential US strikes on Iran before the midterm elections, is being unwound after yesterday\u2019s de-escalation. In fact,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439774","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439774"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439774\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}