{"id":439780,"date":"2026-10-09T19:17:51","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T12:17:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/morning-kickstart-dollar-mixed-stocks-rebound-and-oil-retreats-amid-iran-uncertainty-439780\/"},"modified":"2026-10-09T19:17:51","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T12:17:51","slug":"morning-kickstart-dollar-mixed-stocks-rebound-and-oil-retreats-amid-iran-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/morning-kickstart-dollar-mixed-stocks-rebound-and-oil-retreats-amid-iran-uncertainty-439780\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Kickstart: Dollar mixed, stocks rebound and oil retreats amid Iran uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs\u2014EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD\u2014from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. dollar is mixed and little changed to start the North American session. The greenback is strongest against the Japanese yen and weakest against the Australian dollar. Against the other major currencies, the changes are modest.<\/p>\n<p>U.S. stock futures are pointing higher, led by the Nasdaq 100. Crude oil is lower and back between its 100- and 200-hour moving averages, while Treasury yields have edged higher. Gold, silver, copper and Bitcoin are also advancing.<\/p>\n<p>Middle East headlines continue to pull in different directions<\/p>\n<p>The Middle East remains a headline-driven market, with military preparations on one side and diplomatic discussions on the other.<\/p>\n<p>InvestingLive\u2019s overnight coverage reports that the Pentagon has prepared options for a roughly three-day campaign against Iran. However, President Trump has rejected several earlier strike proposals and publicly pledged that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections. Oil eased as traders gave more weight to that pledge than to the military preparations.<\/p>\n<p>Trump also said discussions with Iran are productive, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/what-are-the-main-events-for-today-60\/\" rel=\"follow\">InvestingLive\u2019s preview of today\u2019s events<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>What happens next? Nobody knows with confidence. The headlines can change quickly, and so can the market reaction. For traders, the task is to identify the technical levels, define and limit risk, and watch which side can sustain a break.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. dollar picture<\/p>\n<p>The dollar\u2019s largest moves are against the yen and Australian dollar:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>EURUSD: 1.1211, up 0.02%. The dollar is marginally lower.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>USDJPY: 158.24, up 0.24%. The dollar\u2019s largest gain.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>GBPUSD: 1.3224, essentially unchanged.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>USDCHF: 0.8310, down 0.05%. The dollar is modestly lower.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>USDCAD: 1.4230, up 0.04%. The dollar is modestly higher.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>AUDUSD: 0.6977, up 0.32%. The dollar\u2019s largest decline.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>NZDUSD: 0.5612, up 0.04%. The dollar is modestly lower.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The three major pairs have traded the following session ranges:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>EURUSD: 1.1206 to 1.1243\u2014a 37-pip range.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>USDJPY: 157.77 to 158.41\u2014a 64-pip range.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>GBPUSD: 1.3223 to 1.3250\u2014a 27-pip range.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The pound\u2019s range is particularly narrow in absolute terms. The next catalyst could give traders a shove, but the important question is whether the price can break a technical level and stay beyond it.<\/p>\n<p>U.S. stock futures point higher<\/p>\n<p>U.S. stock futures are implying a higher opening, with technology shares leading:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Dow industrial average: up 38 points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>S&amp;P 500: up 30 points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Nasdaq 100: up 222 points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The stronger opening indications give buyers an opportunity. The next test is whether they can build on those gains once cash trading gets underway.<\/p>\n<p>Crude oil retreats between its hourly moving averages<\/p>\n<p>WTI crude futures are trading at $90.55, down $0.94, or 1.03%.<\/p>\n<p>Yesterday\u2019s rally stalled within the swing resistance area between $92.29 and $93.48. Buyers had their shot against that area, but could not sustain the move higher.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s decline has returned the price between the 100-hour moving average near $90.00 and the 200-hour moving average near $90.59.<\/p>\n<p>Those moving averages now give traders nearby levels to lean against:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>A move above the 200-hour moving average\u2014and staying above\u2014would give buyers more control. The next upside targets include the 38.2% retracement near $91.60, followed by the $92.29\u2013$93.48 swing area.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>A move below the 100-hour moving average\u2014and staying below\u2014would strengthen the sellers\u2019 hand. Downside references include $88.72 and the 50% midpoint near $86.93.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Between the moving averages, the market is trying to figure out the next shove. Let the price action help define the bias rather than trying to predict the next geopolitical headline.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Treasury yields edge higher<\/p>\n<p>U.S. yields are modestly higher, with the largest increase at the short end:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>2-year: 4.7848%, up 2.88 basis points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>5-year: 5.0067%, up 1.57 basis points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>10-year: 5.2463%, up 1.33 basis points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>30-year: 5.6196%, up 1.26 basis points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>European stocks advance<\/p>\n<p>European equities are higher across the major markets:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Germany\u2019s DAX: 25,105.78, up 298.80 points, or 1.20%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>France\u2019s CAC: 7,796.30, up 66.60 points, or 0.86%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>UK\u2019s FTSE 100: 10,554.13, up 112.54 points, or 1.08%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Spain\u2019s Ibex: 19,122.70, up 193.80 points, or 1.02%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Italy\u2019s FTSE MIB: 49,822.23, up 524.34 points, or 1.06%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Metals and Bitcoin move higher<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Spot gold: $4,184.99, up $51.30, or 1.24%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Silver: $60.425, up $1.2445, or 2.10%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Copper futures: $6.6930, up $0.1245, or 1.90%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Bitcoin: $82,777, up $1,101, or 1.35%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Canadian jobs at 8:30 a.m. ET<\/p>\n<p>Canadian employment is expected to increase by 9,200, following last month\u2019s decline of 41,700. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.5%, from 6.4%.<\/p>\n<p>Last month\u2019s employment breakdown showed:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Part-time employment: down 35,900.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Full-time employment: down 5,800.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Most of the job losses came from part-time employment. Today, traders will want to see whether those jobs return and whether full-time hiring can rebound as well. A headline gain supported by full-time employment would be more encouraging than one driven entirely by part-time jobs.<\/p>\n<p>Wages and labor-force participation will also help explain the report. For USDCAD, watch the details first, then the price reaction. Does the release give buyers or sellers enough momentum to break a technical level and stay beyond it?<\/p>\n<p>U.S. consumer sentiment and inflation expectations at 10:00 a.m. ET<\/p>\n<p>The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October is expected at 47.6, versus 48.1 previously.<\/p>\n<p>The inflation expectations readings deserve attention alongside the headline sentiment number. Last month:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>1-year inflation expectations were 4.6%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>5-year inflation expectations were 3.4%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The one-year reading gives a sense of the price pressures consumers expect in the near term. The five-year measure provides a longer-term perspective on whether consumers expect inflation to remain elevated.<\/p>\n<p>A rise in expectations could complicate the inflation outlook. A decline would be more encouraging, particularly with consumers already facing high borrowing costs and volatile energy prices. Watch how Treasury yields and the dollar respond to the combination of confidence and inflation expectations.<\/p>\n<p>In the Kickstart video, I take a look at the three major currency pairs. The goal is to identify who has control, where that view would change, and what comes next if buyers or sellers can extend the move.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs\u2014EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD\u2014from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439780","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439780"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439780\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439780"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}