{"id":439789,"date":"2026-10-09T22:45:13","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T15:45:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/spacex-lockup-expiration-puts-buyers-to-the-test-the-technicals-define-the-risk-439789\/"},"modified":"2026-10-09T22:45:13","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T15:45:13","slug":"spacex-lockup-expiration-puts-buyers-to-the-test-the-technicals-define-the-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/spacex-lockup-expiration-puts-buyers-to-the-test-the-technicals-define-the-risk-439789\/","title":{"rendered":"SpaceX lockup expiration puts buyers to the test. The technicals define the risk."},"content":{"rendered":"
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Elon Musk’s SpaceX has a supply test today.<\/p>\n

Under the reported lockup schedule, up to 328.4 million shares become eligible for sale on October 9. That gives certain employees and early investors the opportunity to sell shares previously subject to restrictions following the IPO.<\/p>\n

Does that mean the stock has to fall?<\/p>\n

No. Becoming eligible to sell does not mean every holder will sell. Some may take profits. Others may sell a portion or continue to hold. The unlock itself does not create new shares. It makes existing shares potentially available for trading.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the size deserves attention.<\/p>\n

SpaceX\u2019s 65-day average daily trading volume is approximately 92.3 million shares. Today\u2019s maximum release represents roughly 3.6 times that daily turnover. That is meaningful potential supply, although it should not be interpreted as 3.6 days of guaranteed selling.<\/p>\n

The question is how much selling actually emerges\u2014and whether buyers can absorb it.<\/p>\n

There is more potential supply ahead. Another 328.4 million-share tranche is scheduled to become eligible on October 24, a Saturday, making October 26 the next regular trading session. A larger tranche of up to 1.3 billion shares could become eligible on the second full trading day after third-quarter results. That is approximately four times today\u2019s release.<\/p>\n

For me, that makes the technicals particularly useful. The calendar tells us when holders can sell. The price action helps tell us whether sellers are taking control.<\/p>\n

The technical picture<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Looking at the price action since SpaceX\u2019s June 12 debut (see chart above), the stock initially moved sharply higher. From the $135 IPO price, the first four trading days took the price to $225.64\u2014a gain of 67.1%.<\/p>\n

Those gains did not last.<\/p>\n

The price fell toward $147 by June 23 before bouncing to $172.40 on June 30. Selling subsequently resumed, taking the stock to its August 3 low at $104.83. That low area was retested on August 6 before buyers started the climb back higher.<\/p>\n

Since August 6, the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages\u2014the blue and green lines on the chart\u2014have provided a useful roadmap. The price has generally held above at least one of those moving averages since that day.<\/p>\n

The exceptions were brief. On September 28 and October 1, the price slipped marginally below both, but each break lasted only a single hourly bar. Sellers had their shot. They could not sustain the breaks.<\/p>\n

The moving averages currently come in at:<\/p>\n