{"id":439878,"date":"2026-10-12T19:23:10","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T12:23:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/morning-kickstart-dollar-higher-oil-rebounds-as-holiday-trading-begins-439878\/"},"modified":"2026-10-12T19:23:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T12:23:10","slug":"morning-kickstart-dollar-higher-oil-rebounds-as-holiday-trading-begins","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/morning-kickstart-dollar-higher-oil-rebounds-as-holiday-trading-begins-439878\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Kickstart: Dollar higher, oil rebounds as holiday trading begins"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>In the Morning Kickstart video above, I take a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.<\/p>\n<p>The North American trading week begins with a partial holiday. The U.S. observes Columbus Day, while Canada celebrates Thanksgiving. U.S. stock markets are open, but the cash Treasury market is closed. Japan is also on holiday, leaving lighter participation across several markets. The Treasury yields below are Friday\u2019s closing levels.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. dollar is higher against all seven major currencies, although the pound is nearly unchanged. Stock futures are mixed, with modest gains in the Dow and S&amp;P 500 contrasting with a decline in the Nasdaq 100. Crude oil has turned higher following early Asian weakness, while gold and silver are lower.<\/p>\n<p>For traders, the holiday puts more emphasis on follow-through. A price can break a level, but can it stay beyond that level?  Let the price action help confirm whether buyers or sellers are gaining control.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. dollar is higher<\/p>\n<p>The greenback\u2019s largest gain is against the Swiss franc, followed by the New Zealand dollar and euro. Sterling is holding up best against the dollar, with only a marginal decline.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>EURUSD: 1.1174, down 0.24%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>USDJPY: 158.61, up 0.19%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>GBPUSD: 1.3230, down 0.01%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>USDCHF: 0.8330, up 0.35%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>USDCAD: 1.4265, up 0.08%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>AUDUSD: 0.6969, down 0.19%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>NZDUSD: 0.5595, down 0.25%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>EURUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are trading near their session lows, while USDJPY and USDCHF are near their session highs. The dollar has the stronger hand in the opening price action.<\/p>\n<p>Major currency trading ranges<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>EURUSD: 1.1173 to 1.1187 \u2014 14 pips.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>USDJPY: 158.08 to 158.63 \u2014 55 pips.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>GBPUSD: 1.3228 to 1.3261 \u2014 33 pips.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>EURUSD has the narrowest range of the three. That gives traders a compact opening reference, but it does not tell us which direction the next move will take. Look for a break and then the ability to stay beyond it.<\/p>\n<p>U.S. stock futures are mixed<\/p>\n<p>As mentioned, the US debt market is closed but the stock markets are open today.\u00a0 U.S. futures are implying:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Dow industrial average: up 56 points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>S&amp;P 500: up 2.21 points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Nasdaq 100: down 96 points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Dow and S&amp;P gains are modest, while the Nasdaq 100 is lagging. There is no broad agreement across the major indices heading toward the opening.<\/p>\n<p>Treasury yields reflect Friday\u2019s close<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. cash bond market is closed today. These are the closing yields from Friday, October 9. Last week the 10 year yield moved to the highest level since 2002 at 5.365%. <\/p>\n<p>The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is a key benchmark for mortgage rates and other borrowing costs. It also reflects expectations for growth, inflation and Fed policy. Higher yields can support the dollar and pressure stocks by making bonds more competitive and reducing the present value of future earnings. Lower yields can ease those pressures, although the reason behind the move matters.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>2-year: 4.7911%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>5-year: 5.0211%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>10-year: 5.2421%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>30-year: 5.6001%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The elevated yield levels remain part of the backdrop for currencies and stocks, but there is no fresh cash Treasury move to assess today.<\/p>\n<p>Crude oil rebounds; precious metals retreat<\/p>\n<p>WTI crude oil futures are trading at $93.04, up $1.19 or 1.30%. That reverses the softer tone reported during the Asian session.<\/p>\n<p>Gold and silver are lower, while copper and Bitcoin are modestly higher:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Gold: $4,171.43, down $23.22 or 0.55%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Silver: $60.66, down $0.12 or 0.20%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Copper: $6.7655, up $0.0175 or 0.26%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Bitcoin: $83,136, up $313 or 0.38%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Middle East and Russia\u2013Ukraine headlines remain in focus<\/p>\n<p>The weekend brought fresh attack reports from Saudi Arabia. The Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi airports and two Aramco facilities, although the claims involving the oil facilities remained unverified. Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers also spoke about de-escalation.<\/p>\n<p>Separately, President Trump announced a Russia\u2013Ukraine energy ceasefire. However, Ukraine reported further Russian attacks on power infrastructure, and Moscow had not publicly confirmed the agreement.<\/p>\n<p>For energy traders, an announced ceasefire and one that holds are two different things. Further headlines could change expectations for supply and disruption.<\/p>\n<p>See <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/investinglive-asia-pacific-market-news-gulf-strikes-truce-doubts\/\" rel=\"follow\">Eamonn\u2019s overnight market wrap<\/a> for more on the geopolitical developments.<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s yuan strengthens<\/p>\n<p>The People\u2019s Bank of China set its strongest yuan reference rate since February 2023. The offshore yuan also reached its strongest level against the dollar since 2022.<\/p>\n<p>That provides an important exception to the dollar\u2019s gains against the major currencies this morning.<\/p>\n<p>A quieter Monday before a busier week<\/p>\n<p>The holiday session gives way to major bank earnings beginning Tuesday. U.S. CPI follows Wednesday, with PPI and retail sales on Thursday. Inflation will help frame the Fed outlook, while retail sales and corporate earnings offer another check on consumer demand and business performance (<a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/week-ahead-us-inflation-and-retail-sales-lead-a-busy-economic-calendar-be-aware\/\" rel=\"follow\">CLICK HERE<\/a> for the economic calendar of key releases and events).<\/p>\n<p>For today, the opening ranges provide nearby reference points. EURUSD is testing the lower end of its range near 1.1173. USDJPY is approaching its session high at 158.63. GBPUSD is near its session low at 1.3228.<\/p>\n<p>A break can open the door for an extension. A failed break can tell us that buyers or sellers had their shot and could not get the job done. Watch how the price behaves after the level is tested.<\/p>\n<p>In the Kickstart video, I take a look at the three major currency pairs\u2014EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The focus is on the technical bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give buyers or sellers more control.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the Morning Kickstart video above, I take a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439878","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439878"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439878\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}