{"id":439961,"date":"2026-10-13T15:21:59","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T08:21:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/chart-of-the-day-eur-chf-bounces-this-week-but-french-bond-spreads-warn-euro-risks-arent-over-439961\/"},"modified":"2026-10-13T15:21:59","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T08:21:59","slug":"chart-of-the-day-eur-chf-bounces-this-week-but-french-bond-spreads-warn-euro-risks-arent-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/chart-of-the-day-eur-chf-bounces-this-week-but-french-bond-spreads-warn-euro-risks-arent-over-439961\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart of the day: EUR\/CHF bounces this week but French bond spreads warn euro risks aren’t over"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The euro appears to be catching a bit of a break against the franc this week, though I’m not entirely convinced that the danger has passed just yet.<\/p>\n

EUR\/CHF was pressured late last week and tested waters below the 0.9300 level, posting its weakest daily close since July. But as we get into the new week, the pair managed to bounce off the key technical region around 0.9300 with the 100-day moving average (red line) and trendline support from the March and May lows helping to provide an additional layer of defense for buyers.<\/p>\n

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So, the question now is whether buyers can build on that rebound or if this is merely a temporary reprieve.<\/p>\n

For now, the cluster of support levels around the 0.9300 region remains the key line in the sand. A firm break below that would put the 200-day moving average (blue line) around 0.9236 in focus next, before potentially opening up a move towards the 0.9200 level.<\/p>\n

The key risk for the currency pair? It is the fact that the French-German bond yield spread\u00a0continues to stay elevated around 141 bps, not far from the recent highs near 150 bps.<\/p>\n

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The wider yield spread suggests that\u00a0investors are still demanding a hefty premium to hold French debt, with fiscal concerns continuing to outweigh confidence. And the longer that this situation persists, the greater the risk that some of the unease we’re seeing could spill over into other euro area bond markets.<\/p>\n

For now, we’re certainly not quite at the stage to label this as another euro area debt crisis. However, it is a warning signal that I wouldn’t want to be ignoring.<\/p>\n

And with the US CPI report coming up tomorrow, that might be another potential catalyst to watch. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading\u00a0could push Treasury yields higher and weigh on broader risk sentiment, potentially renewing demand for the franc. At the same time, that could drive a further selloff in global bond markets as well and drag yields in Europe higher – further exacerbating the fiscal risks associated with French debt.<\/p>\n

On the flip side, a softer report could offer EUR\/CHF some light breathing room as seen with the calmer start to the new week so far.\u00a0But even then, it won’t make France’s fiscal troubles disappear overnight.<\/p>\n

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This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The euro appears to be catching a bit of a break against the franc this week, though I’m not entirely convinced that the danger has passed just yet. EUR\/CHF was pressured late…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439961","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439961"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439961\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}