{"id":440002,"date":"2026-10-14T07:11:26","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T00:11:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/singapores-mas-holds-policy-steady-surprising-all-10-analysts-who-expected-tightening-440002\/"},"modified":"2026-10-14T07:11:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T00:11:26","slug":"singapores-mas-holds-policy-steady-surprising-all-10-analysts-who-expected-tightening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/singapores-mas-holds-policy-steady-surprising-all-10-analysts-who-expected-tightening-440002\/","title":{"rendered":"Singapore\u2019s MAS holds policy steady, surprising all 10 analysts who expected tightening"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The decision is a dovish surprise against a unanimous call for tightening, which leaves the Singapore dollar vulnerable to some softening against its trading partners as positions built for a hawkish move unwind. The policy band still has an appreciating slope, though, so this is a pause in tightening, not an easing. Energy is the key swing factor. MAS explicitly flagged a sharp, sustained surge in energy prices as an upside risk, so a renewed jump in crude tied to Gulf escalation would put tightening firmly back on the table at the next review. Singapore\u2019s position as a regional oil-trading and refining hub makes its imported inflation particularly sensitive to oil and refined product prices.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\nMAS chose patience over pre-emption, betting that slightly elevated inflation will ease on its own as the AI boom cools and import costs fade.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept the rate of appreciation, width and centre of its S$NEER policy band unchanged<\/li>\n<li>All 10 analysts polled by Reuters had expected MAS to tighten<\/li>\n<li>MAS sees the economy expanding at a firm pace in the near term, then moderating as the AI cycle eases from its exceptional pace and global financial conditions tighten<\/li>\n<li>Core inflation is forecast to average 1.5% to 2.0% in 2026, stay slightly elevated in the coming quarters and ease more discernibly from mid-2027<\/li>\n<li>MAS said risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside, citing the potential for a sharp, sustained surge in energy or food prices<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\nThe Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its monetary policy settings unchanged on Wednesday, defying expectations for a tightening as it judged that slightly elevated inflation should ease over time.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The central bank, which manages policy through the exchange rate, said it would maintain the current rate of appreciation of its policy band, known as the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate or S$NEER. There will be no change to the width of the band or the level at which it is centred. The band is already on an appreciating path, which helps restrain imported inflation, so the decision leaves that tightening bias in place without adding to it. All 10 analysts polled by Reuters had expected MAS to tighten.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">MAS said the economy should continue to expand at a firm pace in the immediate quarters ahead, but moderate thereafter as the AI cycle eases from its exceptional pace and global financial conditions tighten. It expects AI-related activity to slow in the second half of 2027 and the economy\u2019s positive output gap, a sign that demand is running ahead of capacity, to narrow through next year. The government will announce its growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 in November.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">On prices, MAS expects firming imported cost pressures to keep both core and headline inflation at their current slightly elevated levels in the months ahead. Core inflation is forecast to average 1.5% to 2.0% for 2026 as a whole, before easing more discernibly from the middle of next year as import costs ebb.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The central bank stressed that significant uncertainty surrounds the outlook and that, for now, risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside. A sharp and sustained surge in global energy or food prices could lift Singapore\u2019s import costs by more than forecast. On the other hand, a larger-than-expected rise in interest rates or a sharper pullback in AI-related investment could drag on growth and, in turn, inflation.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The hold suggests MAS is prepared to look through near-term price pressures on the view that they will fade, while keeping its appreciating policy stance in place. With risks still skewed to the upside, the path of energy prices and the strength of the AI cycle are likely to shape whether it moves at its next review.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The Monetary Authority of Singapore is the coutnry&#8217;s central bank.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Also out were GDP data for Q3 2026 in Singapore, advance reading:<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"> 1.1% q\/q<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>expected 1.2%, prior\u00a01.4%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"> 5.4% y\/y<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>expected 5%, prior\u00a05.9%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The decision is a dovish surprise against a unanimous call for tightening, which leaves the Singapore dollar vulnerable to some softening against its trading partners as positions built for a hawkish move&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-440002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440002","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=440002"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440002\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=440002"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=440002"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=440002"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}