{"id":440036,"date":"2026-10-14T14:53:34","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T07:53:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/elev8-broker-see-more-in-forex-and-commodity-markets-440036\/"},"modified":"2026-10-14T14:53:34","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T07:53:34","slug":"elev8-broker-see-more-in-forex-and-commodity-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/elev8-broker-see-more-in-forex-and-commodity-markets-440036\/","title":{"rendered":"Elev8 broker: see more in Forex and commodity markets"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Introduction<\/p>\n

Momentum indicators
\n help traders understand market direction. In this article, Elev8 broker looks
\n at various momentum indicators, including the 14-week Relative Strength Index
\n (RSI), overextension analysis, and traders’ positioning as per the Commodity Futures
\n Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitments of Traders (COT) report. However, it is
\n not always clear what is behind the momentum. To give traders the full picture,
\n Elev8 broker will outline the fundamental developments and real-world events
\n currently shaping FX pairs and commodities.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Momentum indicators<\/p>\n

The chart below shows
\n major currencies and commodities ranking across various momentum indicators.
\n Dark khaki marks commodities, deep teal marks currencies with indirect quotes,
\n and olive green marks all the other currencies (direct quotes). DXY is the symbol
\n for the U.S. Dollar Index. For the Chinese renminbi, the onshore rate (USDCNY)
\n is used.<\/p>\n

\n

Source: Elev8 broker,
\nCFTC COT<\/p>\n

The highest 14-week
\nRSI readings appear in USDMXN, sugar, European coal, European natural gas
\n(TTF), and UK natural gas (NBP). A high 14-week RSI in these five markets
\npoints to sustained multi-month upward momentum. The common thread is the Iran
\nwar’s cascading energy shock, compounded by El Ni\u00f1o weather disruption. These
\nmoves are linked.<\/p>\n

USDMXN is rising
\nbecause the dollar draws safe-haven demand while Mexico\u2019s central bank turns
\nmore dovish. Sugar is rising on a global El Ni\u00f1o-driven supply shortfall.
\nEuropean coal, TTF and NBP are all rising on the same energy crisis, which
\nincludes Middle East refining losses, Norwegian supply outages, and approaching
\nwinter demand.<\/p>\n

For USDMXN, a high RSI
\nmeans sustained peso weakness against the dollar. Multiple forces combine here.
\nThe Bank of Mexico held rates at 6.50% in September but removed the language
\nsignalling a prolonged pause. At the same time, the protocols released on 8
\nOctober showed that three of five board members stated that future interest
\nrate cuts could be considered if the inflation outlook improves.\u00a0<\/p>\n

International
\ninvestors are beginning to lose interest in Mexican assets, and Elev8 broker’s
\nanalysts flag 18.50 as a resistance level that could be reached soon if
\nnervousness persists. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently stated<\/a>that greater efforts are needed to put Mexico’s debt on a
\ndeclining trajectory. It projects growth of just 1.5% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027,
\nwith public debt rising to 55% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Finally, broad
\ndollar strength near 18-month highs, driven by safe-asset demand spurred by the
\nMiddle East conflict and relatively hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy,
\ncompounds peso weakness.<\/p>\n

Raw sugar touched a
\n19-month high of 21.24 cents per pound on 7 October, gaining 1.6% for the week.
\nExtreme climate events are hitting yields hard across the world, causing
\nwaterlogged cane in Brazil, drought-hit beet in Europe, and stalled planting in
\nwestern India.<\/p>\n

European coal benefits
\nfrom the broader energy crisis. Middle East refining destruction has taken
\nroughly 2.3 million barrels per day (Mbbl\/d) of refining capacity offline,
\ndriving record fuel prices globally. The International Energy Agency suggested<\/a>
\nthat member countries assess whether additional diesel releases are necessary
\nahead of governing board meetings. When gas prices rise sharply, European
\nutilities switch from gas-burning to coal-burning power generation, directly
\nboosting demand for thermal coal. Plant activity data shows multiple large
\nEuropean coal plants are returning
\nonline<\/a> across Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands.<\/p>\n

Natural gas prices at
\nthe Dutch TTF and UK NBP hubs are closely correlated and driven higher by
\nsimilar factors. In summer, Norwegian gas operator Gassco reportedmultiple unplanned outages complicating storage build in
\nEurope. Because Norway is Europe’s single largest pipeline gas supplier, these
\nunplanned outages tighten TTF and NBP prices. Broader energy drivers include
\nthe Iran war spillover pushing energy commodities higher and the arrival of
\nOctober, marking the beginning of the European heating season.<\/p>\n

Conversely, the lowest
\n14- week RSI values appear in EURUSD and iron ore.<\/p>\n

EURUSD has posted five
\nconsecutive weekly losses and hit an 18-month low, with analysts describing a
\npotential ‘falling knife’ situation. The single most damaging factor for the
\neuro is France, where government borrowing rates and risk premia versus Germany
\nhave risen to levels unseen since the 2011 euro crisis. The French 10-year
\nyield reached a 24-year high of 4.994%, the budget deficit exceeds 5% of GDP,
\nand a divisive presidential election next year adds political uncertainty.<\/p>\n

A European Central
\nBank (ECB) leadership vacuum compounds pressure as board member Isabel Schnabel
\ndeparts for the IMF, chief economist Philip Lane leaves by May, and Christine
\nLagarde faces persistent resignation rumours. Germany is lobbying to retain the
\nseat vacated by Schnabel, meaning the presidency battle will likely occur
\nbetween Spain and the Netherlands, with neither seen as an interventionist
\nfigure.<\/p>\n

Global money market
\nfunds attracted massive inflows as the global bond selloff, European fiscal
\nconcerns, and inflation fears pushed investors toward safety. Meanwhile, the
\nUnited States 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a high of 5.365%, supporting
\nthe dollar. Technically, the EURUSD pair trades above structural support, but
\nthe Elev8 broker believes that significant buying may not appear until lower
\nzones are reached.<\/p>\n

Iron ore remains in a
\nsustained downtrend, extending declines to multi-month lows, weighed down by
\nweak steel consumption and rising supply expectations. China consumes roughly
\n70% of global seaborne iron ore, and its protracted property downturn continues
\nto suppress steel demand from the construction sector. Furthermore, the Iran
\nwar created record freight shipping rates through Strait of Hormuz disruptions,
\nsqueezing miners’ margins. Australian and Brazilian producers continue to ship
\nat high volumes, while India targets massive steel capacity expansion.<\/p>\n

Overextension
\nanalysis<\/p>\n

Overextension analysis
\nmeasures how far each currency’s exchange rate has moved from its historical
\nthree-year trading range, expressed as a percentage (0% = the lower bound of
\nthe range, 100% = the upper bound of the range). We use a three-year lookback
\nperiod to strike an effective balance. The three-year window is long enough to
\ncapture more than half of a typical business cycle (the National Bureau of
\nEconomic Research estimates the average cycle at roughly 60 months) yet short
\nenough to retain meaningful volatility and generate actionable signals.<\/p>\n

Through this lens,
\nUSDCNY, USDSGD, USDPEN, USDINR, and USDTRY appear overextended. Specifically,
\nthe Chinese yuan, Singapore dollar, and Peruvian sol are overvalued, while the
\nIndian rupee and Turkish lira are undervalued.<\/p>\n

USDCNY has slipped
\nclose to its 44-month low, touching 6.692 despite a firm dollar index. The
\ndrivers of exceptional yuan strength include managed appreciation by the
\nPeople’s Bank of China (PBoC), which leans toward pro-market conditions and
\nallows the yuan to strengthen to anchor confidence. China also launched a
\nfiscal stimulus push to reach its GDP target and support the stock market,
\nmaking yuan-denominated assets more attractive. Furthermore, growing
\ninternational yuan usage, with brokers pushing for offshore clearing, increases
\ndemand.<\/p>\n

USDSGD reflects
\nmonetary policy tightening by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), driven
\nby robust growth from the AI boom. Singapore manages inflation by allowing its
\ncurrency to appreciate to absorb rising import prices, supported by strong fiscal
\nfundamentals, as reflected in low government bond yields relative to U.S.
\nTreasuries.<\/p>\n

USDPEN benefits from
\nrecord copper prices near $6.50 per pound, boosted further by supply
\ndisruptions such as a mudslide
\nat Chile’s El Teniente mine<\/a>. As the world’s second-largest copper producer,
\nPeru generates massive export receipts that flow into the domestic foreign
\nexchange market, structurally strengthening the sol. Combined with orthodox
\nmonetary policy from the central bank, the sol remains a top-performing
\nemerging market currency.<\/p>\n

USDINR highlights how
\nan overwhelming oil import bill renders central bank interventions ineffective.
\nThe rupee trades near record lows despite emergency measures by the Reserve
\nBank of India, which opened special dollar windows for state-run oil companies,
\nslashed derivatives limits, imposed risk reserves, and conducted open market
\nbond sales to drain liquidity while foreign exchange reserves declined.<\/p>\n

USDTRY represents a
\nunique case of managed depreciation, in which the Turkish lira depreciates by
\ndesign. Recent pressures include a capital markets investment fund crisis
\naffecting hundreds of thousands of savers, heightened central bank
\nforeign-exchange volatility, and carry-trade dynamics in which investors
\nmaintain long positions to capture high policy interest rates while monitoring
\ndomestic trust in the currency.<\/p>\n

Traders’
\npositioning<\/p>\n

Market positioning
\nreveals clear trends across commodities and currencies. Speculative long
\npositions concentrate in soybeans, sugar, gasoline, corn, and the Brazilian
\nreal.\u00a0<\/p>\n