{"id":440076,"date":"2026-10-14T19:26:26","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T12:26:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/morning-kickstart-us-cpi-ahead-as-dollar-trades-mixed-and-oil-climbs-3-440076\/"},"modified":"2026-10-14T19:26:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T12:26:26","slug":"morning-kickstart-us-cpi-ahead-as-dollar-trades-mixed-and-oil-climbs-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/morning-kickstart-us-cpi-ahead-as-dollar-trades-mixed-and-oil-climbs-3-440076\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Kickstart: US CPI ahead as dollar trades mixed and oil climbs"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>It is CPI day, and the next shove for the dollar, Treasury yields and stocks could arrive at 8:30 AM ET.<\/p>\n<p>In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs\u2014EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD\u2014from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.<\/p>\n<p>The setup ahead of the release is mixed. The dollar is posting modest changes against most major currencies, with the Australian dollar the clear outperformer. Treasury yields are lower by around 1\u20132 basis points. Dow and S&amp;P 500 futures are pointing higher, but Nasdaq 100 futures are lower. Meanwhile, crude oil is approaching $96, keeping the energy-inflation story firmly in focus.<\/p>\n<p>US CPI: Energy lifts the headline. What about the core?<\/p>\n<p>The September CPI expectations are:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Headline CPI month over month: +0.6% versus +0.4% last month.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Headline CPI year over year: +3.6% versus +3.4% last month.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Core CPI month over month: +0.2% versus +0.3% last month.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Core CPI year over year: +2.5% versus +2.4% last month.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The headline reading is expected to accelerate as higher energy prices work through the data. The more important question is how much of that pressure is spreading into other goods and services.<\/p>\n<p>Last month, gasoline prices rose 3.9%, accounting for more than one-third of the monthly headline increase. Core inflation also rose 0.3%, with increases in airline fares, lodging and used vehicles.<\/p>\n<p>A 0.2% monthly core reading would show some moderation from August, even if the annual rate rises to 2.5%. Those measures can move in different directions because the year-over-year reading also depends on the number dropping out from a year ago.<\/p>\n<p>My focus will be on the core surprise:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Core at 0.3% or higher: That could push yields higher and support the dollar as traders reassess the risk of further Fed tightening.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Core in line at 0.2%: That could give the Fed more room to wait, particularly if the headline strength is concentrated in energy.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Core at 0.1% or lower: That would be moving in the right direction and could pressure yields and the dollar while providing some relief for stocks.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Thursday\u2019s PPI report at 8:30 AM ET will add another piece to the inflation puzzle. Together, the reports will help economists refine their estimates for PCE and core PCE inflation.<\/p>\n<p>The US dollar is mixed<\/p>\n<p>The largest move is against the Australian dollar, with AUDUSD up 0.39%. Elsewhere, the changes are small ahead of CPI.<\/p>\n<p>From the US dollar\u2019s perspective:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>EUR: USD lower by 0.02%; EURUSD at 1.1196.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>JPY: USD higher by 0.09%; USDJPY at 158.43.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>GBP: USD lower by 0.08%; GBPUSD at 1.3262.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>CHF: USD higher by 0.07%; USDCHF at 0.8329.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>CAD: USD lower by 0.01%; USDCAD at 1.4215.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>AUD: USD lower by 0.39%; AUDUSD at 0.7007.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>NZD: USD lower by 0.07%; NZDUSD at 0.5613.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Australian dollar is the strongest against the greenback, while the yen is the weakest.<\/p>\n<p>Currency ranges: There is room to roam<\/p>\n<p>ATR(22) is the average true range over the last 22 trading days\u2014approximately one month of trading. Comparing today\u2019s high-to-low range with that average gives traders a sense of how much movement has already occurred.<\/p>\n<p>Using the latest session highs and lows:<\/p>\n<p>EURUSD and USDJPY have completed only about 38% and 37% of their respective ATRs. GBPUSD is at 44%. All three major pairs have meaningful room to extend if CPI delivers a surprise.<\/p>\n<p>AUDUSD has already covered the largest share of its normal range at 75%, consistent with its stronger move this morning.<\/p>\n<p>The ATR is context, not a ceiling or a promise that the price must move farther. A strong data surprise can push a pair beyond its average range. If that happens and the price holds near an extreme, it can be a sign that the market is trending.<\/p>\n<p>US stock futures at 8:00 AM ET<\/p>\n<p>Futures are implying:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Dow industrial average: +141 points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>S&amp;P 500: +15 points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Nasdaq 100: \u221259 points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The split leaves the broader market looking firmer while technology shares lag ahead of the inflation release.<\/p>\n<p>US Treasury yields<\/p>\n<p>Yields are modestly lower across the curve:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>2-year: 4.7784%, down 1.46 basis points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>5-year: 4.9905%, down 1.65 basis points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>10-year: 5.2022%, down 1.48 basis points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>30-year: 5.5513%, down 1.17 basis points.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The CPI report will test that move. A hotter core reading could reverse the decline, while softer underlying inflation could give bond buyers another reason to push yields lower.<\/p>\n<p>Oil rises. Gold and silver retreat<\/p>\n<p>Crude oil is trading at $95.91, up $1.77 or 1.88%.<\/p>\n<p>InvestingLive\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/commodities\/crude-oil-climbs-again-as-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-faces-doubts-us-iran-stalemate-extends\/\" rel=\"follow\">latest oil coverage<\/a> highlights unresolved negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz and doubts surrounding a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Those supply risks remain part of the backdrop for elevated oil prices.<\/p>\n<p>For today\u2019s CPI report, the distinction matters: higher energy prices can lift headline inflation directly. The core reading helps show whether broader price pressures are becoming more persistent.<\/p>\n<p>Other markets:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Gold: $4,138.74, down $22.40 or 0.54%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Silver: $58.43, down $0.75 or 1.27%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Copper: $6.7445, up 0.28%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Bitcoin: $83,360, up $267 or 0.32%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>China: Factory inflation rises faster than consumer inflation<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s September CPI rose 0.9% year over year, below the 1.0% forecast and up from 0.8% previously. Producer prices rose 5.0%, above the 4.5% forecast and up from 3.8%. Core consumer inflation held at 1.0%, according to InvestingLive\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/china-factory-inflation-hits-5-fastest-in-over-four-years-as-cpi-lags-at-0-9\/\" rel=\"follow\">China inflation report<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>That leaves a familiar question for traders: how much of the increase in production costs can businesses pass on to consumers?<\/p>\n<p>European equities<\/p>\n<p>Most major European indices are higher, with Italy the exception:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Germany\u2019s DAX: +0.50%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>France\u2019s CAC 40: +0.66%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>UK\u2019s FTSE 100: +0.28%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Spain\u2019s IBEX 35: +0.24%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Italy\u2019s FTSE MIB: \u22120.64%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD: Watch the break and the follow-through<\/p>\n<p>The pre-release extremes provide the first reference points for the reaction:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>EURUSD: Support at the session low of 1.1188; resistance at 1.1211.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>USDJPY: Support at 158.12; resistance at 158.51.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>GBPUSD: Support at 1.3245; resistance at 1.3275.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A dollar-positive reaction would put the EURUSD and GBPUSD lows\u2014and the USDJPY high\u2014in focus. A dollar-negative reaction would turn attention toward the EURUSD and GBPUSD highs\u2014and the USDJPY low.<\/p>\n<p>The data will provide the shove. The price action and the technical tools applied to that price action will tell us whether buyers or sellers can keep control.<\/p>\n<p>Watch the nearby swing areas and the 100- and 200-hour moving averages outlined in the video. A break that holds carries more weight than the first spike. If the price breaks an extreme and quickly returns inside the range, that side had its shot\u2014and could not follow through.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It is CPI day, and the next shove for the dollar, Treasury yields and stocks could arrive at 8:30 AM ET. In the morning video above, I take a look at the&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-440076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440076","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=440076"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440076\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=440076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=440076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=440076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}