{"id":440080,"date":"2026-10-14T19:41:32","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T12:41:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-september-cpi-3-7-vs-3-6-expected-440080\/"},"modified":"2026-10-14T19:41:32","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T12:41:32","slug":"us-september-cpi-3-7-vs-3-6-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-september-cpi-3-7-vs-3-6-expected-440080\/","title":{"rendered":"US September CPI 3.7% vs 3.6% expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/us-august-cpi-vs-3-4-expected\/\" rel=\"follow\">Prior <\/a>was 3.4%<\/li>\n<li>Unrounded +3.738% vs +3.397% prior<\/li>\n<li>CPI m\/m +0.6% vs +0.6\u00a0 exp<\/li>\n<li>Prior CPI was +0.4%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Core readings:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>Core y\/y 2.6% vs 2.5% expected<\/li>\n<li>Prior core was 2.4%<\/li>\n<li>Core unrounded +2.564% y\/y vs +2.446% prior<\/li>\n<li>Core m\/m +0.33% vs +0.2\u00a0 expected<\/li>\n<li>Prior m\/m +0.3%<\/li>\n<li>Unrounded  m\/m vs +0.318% prior<\/li>\n<li>Core goods +0.3% m\/m vs +0.11% prior<\/li>\n<li>Real weekly earnings -0.5%\u00a0 vs +0.2% prior<\/li>\n<li>Supercore  y\/y +3.13% vs +3.022% prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Ahead of the report, the market was pricing in a 21%\u00a0 chance of a rate hike in October\u00a0and 27\u00a0 bps in hikes this year. The October number is up to 47% and there are now 36 bps priced in this year. USD\/JPY was trading at 158.46\u00a0 ahead of the report and 158.82 afterwards.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Key sub-components:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>Owners\u2019 equivalent rent: +0.3% vs +0.2% prior<\/li>\n<li>Rent of primary residence: +0.2% vs +0.2% prior<\/li>\n<li>Motor vehicle insurance: +0.1% vs -0.8% prior<\/li>\n<li>Airfares: +1.2% vs +2.7% prior<\/li>\n<li>Used cars: +0.7% vs +0.4% prior<\/li>\n<li>Apparel: +0.3% vs 0.0% prior<\/li>\n<li>Medical care: +0.1% vs -0.2% prior<\/li>\n<li>Lodging away from home: +2.0% vs +2.4% prior<\/li>\n<li>Energy m\/m: +5.2% vs +2.1% prior<\/li>\n<li>Gasoline m\/m: +9.1% vs +3.9% prior<\/li>\n<li>Food m\/m: 0.0% vs +0.1% prior<\/li>\n<li>New vehicles: +0.2% vs +0.3% prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The euro is immediately lower on the report as the US dollar jumps across the board.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<ul dir=\"ltr\"><\/ul>\n<p>Stocks are taking a more-constructive view with S&amp;P 500 futures down 26 points.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In fitting with the hawkish take in the markets that has 2-year yields up 13.5 bps, the Bank of America CEO on the earnings call just now said that consumers are spending and the economy is resilient.&#8221; There is a worrisome outcome unfolding where the US economy continues to strengthen and is further fuelled by the AI spending boom. The Fed will be forced to hike rates further and bond yields will overshoot, leaving the other parts of the economy &#8212; housing in particular &#8212; to bear the brunt of the adjustment.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior was 3.4% Unrounded +3.738% vs +3.397% prior CPI m\/m +0.6% vs +0.6\u00a0 exp Prior CPI was +0.4% Core readings: Core y\/y 2.6% vs 2.5% expected Prior core was 2.4% Core unrounded&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-440080","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440080","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=440080"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440080\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=440080"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=440080"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=440080"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}