{"id":440082,"date":"2026-10-14T20:11:55","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T13:11:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/todays-federal-reserve-speaker-slate-suddenly-got-much-more-interesting-440082\/"},"modified":"2026-10-14T20:11:55","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T13:11:55","slug":"todays-federal-reserve-speaker-slate-suddenly-got-much-more-interesting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/todays-federal-reserve-speaker-slate-suddenly-got-much-more-interesting-440082\/","title":{"rendered":"Today’s Federal Reserve speaker slate suddenly got much more interesting"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The stakes around the October Federal Reserve meeting suddenly got much higher.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Today’s US CPI report was hot across the board, including in core measures that are less volatile than the energy-driven headline. The bond market quickly repriced on the data, with US 2-year yields now up 15 basis points on the day to 4.94%.<\/p>\n

In the Fed funds futures market, pricing is now right at 50\/50 for a hike or hold this month. It’s also critical to note that the Fed goes into the blackout period on Saturday.<\/p>\n

That leaves just three days to shape the narrative if the Fed doesn’t want to go into the meeting with raised stakes. That starts today with a 1:30 pm ET speech from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. I’m a fan of Barkin’s level-headed style and he usually represents the core views of the Fed, so that’s one to watch especially closely. That said, we just heard from Barkin this week and he didn’t offer much in the way of guidance.<\/p>\n

One notable recent comment from him was in late September when he said that this cycle could be like the 1990s mid-cycle adjustment.\u00a0Barkin was comparing now to an easing cycle in the 1990s, when Greenspan cut rates by 75 bps over seven months at the end of 1995. So by that analogue — if you took it directly — would be more dovish than what is priced in now. He also said\u00a0he would not yet make an overheating case, but economy is firming and not weakening and that businesses feel they have pricing power.<\/p>\n

I would not put it past him to tip towards the hawkish side but he’s usually not the guy to make the first big wave.<\/p>\n

Next on the calendar will be Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who will appear on Yahoo Finance at 3 pm ET. He’s candid but we have heard from him plenty and he has been leaning hawkish for awhile. That said, he hasn’t been kicking down the door calling for rate hikes so if we see an incremental move in that direction today, it could be telling.<\/p>\n

Tomorrow, we get to hear from the top guy with an 11:30 pm ET ‘fireside chat’ including Warsh at the IMF meetings. We will see if he sticks to his plan of not giving guidance or lets it out, my guess is that he will have to give a nod in one direction. Earlier that day, we will also hear from Hammack, who has been increasingly hawkish.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Friday calendar is currently bare of Fed speakers but we will monitor that for any changes.<\/p>\n

In terms of economic data, we also get PPI and retail sales tomorrow so those will be key.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The stakes around the October Federal Reserve meeting suddenly got much higher.\u00a0 Today’s US CPI report was hot across the board, including in core measures that are less volatile than the energy-driven…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-440082","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440082","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=440082"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440082\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=440082"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=440082"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=440082"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}