{"id":440157,"date":"2026-10-15T15:03:53","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T08:03:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-whipsaws-after-us-cpi-as-data-falls-short-of-bringing-an-october-rate-hike-back-into-play-440157\/"},"modified":"2026-10-15T15:03:53","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T08:03:53","slug":"gold-whipsaws-after-us-cpi-as-data-falls-short-of-bringing-an-october-rate-hike-back-into-play","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-whipsaws-after-us-cpi-as-data-falls-short-of-bringing-an-october-rate-hike-back-into-play-440157\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold whipsaws after US CPI as data falls short of bringing an October rate hike back into play"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\n

Gold nearly fell to new
\n monthly lows yesterday following the higher than expected Core CPI but
\n eventually recovered all the losses. I think the initial reaction was an
\n overreaction, as I mentioned that an uptick to 0.3% wouldn\u2019t have been enough to
\n make the market to fully price in an October rate hike.<\/p>\n

In fact, after the
\n knee-jerk reaction, the probability of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting
\n stabilised around 30%, just 9% higher than the 21% probability seen before the
\n CPI release.<\/p>\n

Today, we have US PPI
\n on the agenda, but I don\u2019t see it materially changing rate hike expectations.
\n As a result, we could see a similar market reaction to yesterday\u2019s CPI release,
\n unless PPI surprises to the downside, in which case gold could stage a relief
\n rally.<\/p>\n

On the geopolitical
\n front, not much has changed. The Saudi Arabia\u2013Houthi conflict continues, while
\n US\u2013Iran negotiations remain at a stalemate. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to
\n rise amid the ongoing Middle East crisis.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, the
\n focus will remain on developments in the Middle East and the Fed\u2019s policy
\n outlook. A breakthrough in US\u2013Iran negotiations could trigger a strong rally in
\n gold, as traders would scale back rate hike expectations. A Fed that is slow to
\n respond to rising inflation could also support gold if inflation expectations
\n rise faster than nominal yields, pushing real yields lower.<\/p>\n

On the downside, a more
\n hawkish Fed or a further escalation in the US\u2013Iran conflict could put
\n additional pressure on the precious metal.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that gold<\/a>(CFD contract) dropped again yesterday
\n following the higher than expected core CPI but eventually recovered all the
\n losses. We still have the downward trendline that could act as resistance. The
\n sellers will likely lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above it, to
\n position for a drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want
\n to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the 4,700 level
\n next, with the 4,500 level as the first target.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we can
\n see more clearly the downward spike on the CPI release and then the recovery. From
\n a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward
\n setup around the trendline and the 4,228 resistance to keep targeting new lows.
\n The buyers, on the other hand, will need the price to break above the trendline
\n and the resistance to open the door for new highs and target the 4,400 level
\n next.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we
\n have a minor downward trendline that could act as resistance. The sellers will
\n likely lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above it, to keep pushing
\n into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend
\n the pullback into the downward trendline and the 4,228 resistance. The red
\n lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a> we get the US PPI, the
\n US Retail Sales and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. We do have also Fed
\n Chair Warsh speaking very late in the day in a fireside chat with IMF Managing
\n Director Georgieva. He\u2019s against forward guidance, so he might not say anything
\n worthwhile, but it\u2019s worth watching it. <\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gold nearly fell to new monthly lows yesterday following the higher than expected Core CPI but eventually recovered all the losses. I think the initial reaction was an overreaction, as I mentioned…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-440157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=440157"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440157\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=440157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=440157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=440157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}