{"id":440176,"date":"2026-10-15T21:00:15","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T14:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-october-philly-fed-business-index-20-9-vs-28-4-expected-440176\/"},"modified":"2026-10-15T21:00:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T14:00:15","slug":"us-october-philly-fed-business-index-20-9-vs-28-4-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-october-philly-fed-business-index-20-9-vs-28-4-expected-440176\/","title":{"rendered":"US October Philly Fed business index +20.9 vs +28.4 expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Prior was +37.8<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial\">Details:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"[li_&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial\">\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">New orders 4.3 versus 29.2 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Shipments 15.3 versus 27.7 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Unfilled orders 2.4 versus 20.4 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Delivery times 8.5 versus 26.5 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Inventories -12.8  versus -12.5 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Prices paid 43.2 versus 48.6 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Prices received 40.1 versus 31.3 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Number of employees 9.1 versus 11.8 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Average employee workweek 7.5  versus 18.0 last month<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial\">Six-months from now indicators:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"[li_&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial\">\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">6 month index 33.0 vs 52.9 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Capex index 6-month forward 34.9  versus 37.1 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">New orders 37.0 versus 62.3 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Shipments 35.2  versus 61.1 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Unfilled orders -1.6 versus 16.8 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Delivery times -7.5  versus 18.6 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Inventories 23.4  versus 11.6 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Prices paid 62.9   versus 71.3 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Prices received 62.1 versus 72.3 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Number of employees 30.1  versus 50.6 last month<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\">Average employee workweek 10.1  versus 31.8 last month<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand overall. The survey\u2019s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all declined but remained positive this month. The employment index edged down but continued to suggest overall increases in employment. The prices paid index moved down, while the prices received index moved higher this month; both continued to indicate overall increases in prices. The firms continued to expect overall growth over the next six months, but most future indicators declined.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>The Philly Fed index is generally the one more correlated with the ISM manufacturing PMI, despite being more volatile. There&#8217;s clearly a deceleration in economic activity in this data, although the index remains positive.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Despite the much higher than expected PPI released at the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield is down and the yield curve is flattening faster. I feel like the market is starting to worry about growth&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior was +37.8 Details: New orders 4.3 versus 29.2 last month Shipments 15.3 versus 27.7 last month Unfilled orders 2.4 versus 20.4 last month Delivery times 8.5 versus 26.5 last month Inventories&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-440176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440176","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=440176"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440176\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=440176"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=440176"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=440176"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}