{"id":440276,"date":"2026-10-16T21:40:06","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T14:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usdcad-is-lower-on-the-day-but-getting-a-modest-lift-after-another-higher-inflation-reading-440276\/"},"modified":"2026-10-16T21:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T14:40:06","slug":"usdcad-is-lower-on-the-day-but-getting-a-modest-lift-after-another-higher-inflation-reading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usdcad-is-lower-on-the-day-but-getting-a-modest-lift-after-another-higher-inflation-reading-440276\/","title":{"rendered":"USDCAD is lower on the day, but getting a modest lift after another higher inflation reading"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>The USDCAD has seen plenty of up-and-down price action this week, but one message has been consistent: buyers have struggled to sustain momentum near the highs for the year.<\/p>\n<p>The highs from October 5 and October 9 established a ceiling near 1.4292\u20131.4298. Monday\u2019s high fell short at 1.4286. On Wednesday, the stronger-than-expected CPI data gave buyers another opportunity to push higher, but the rally stalled at 1.4298.<\/p>\n<p>From there, the price rotated lower and closed back below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.4244. <\/p>\n<p>Go figure. Stronger inflation. A lower USDCAD.<\/p>\n<p>Yesterday\u2019s higher-than-expected PPI data did not turn the tide either. Instead, the pair extended its decline, breaking below a key floor between 1.41922 and 1.4204.<\/p>\n<p>Technical levels do matter. The buyers could not get through the ceiling. Once the moving averages and floor gave way, sellers had more control.<\/p>\n<p>A longer-term support area gives buyers a place to lean<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>The selling continued today, taking the price into a swing area between 1.41297 and 1.4153.<\/p>\n<p>That area supported the pair from mid-June into mid-July and also lines up with swing highs from November 2025. Today\u2019s low reached 1.4146, putting the price inside that support zone.<\/p>\n<p>The import\/export price data provided another sign of inflation pressure\u2014and another opportunity for traders to buy the US dollar.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Take a look at these concerns.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Fuel and lubricants: +34.5%. Natural gas rose 96.5%, although its small weight\u2014roughly 0.3%\u2014limits its overall influence.<\/li>\n<li>Industrial supplies and materials: +20.4%.<\/li>\n<li>Unfinished metals: +25.3%; finished metals: +18.5%.<\/li>\n<li>Industrial supplies excluding fuels: +13.0%.<\/li>\n<li>Nonelectrical machinery: +10.4%; capital goods: +8.4%.<\/li>\n<li>Imports excluding food and fuels: +6.2%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Food, autos and consumer goods are comparatively less troublesome: annual increases were 2.9%, 1.1% and 2.7%, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>Import takeaway: The persistent concern is the cost of equipment and production inputs. Energy explains September\u2019s biggest jump, but it does not explain away the broader inflation pressure.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>The USD is finding a bid.\u00a0 The difference this time? <\/p>\n<p>Although the USD moved lower on the CPI and the PPI, today we are seeing a modest bid.\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 The USDCAD had already moved lower from its highs for the year and reached an established technical support area. Buyers now have a level against which to define their risk.<\/p>\n<p>The question is whether they &#8220;can hold the support?&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>A move back above 1.4153, followed by an ability to stay above it, would strengthen the case for a bounce. While the price remains inside the zone, buyers and sellers are still battling.<\/p>\n<p>The lower boundary at 1.41297 is the key downside risk level. Stay above it, and buyers retain an opportunity to build a recovery. Move below it and stay below, and another layer of support gives way, opening the door for further selling.<\/p>\n<p>What would a recovery need to clear?<\/p>\n<p>On further upside momentum, the targets come in at:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>1.41922\u20131.4204: The broken floor. Prior support becomes potential resistance.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>1.4223: The falling 100-hour moving average.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>1.4233: The falling 200-hour moving average.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Holding support is a start. Getting back above those resistance levels would provide evidence that buyers are taking back control.<\/p>\n<p>The trading lesson: Prepare before you trade<\/p>\n<p>Hotter inflation data can give traders a reason to buy the dollar. It does not guarantee that the price will move higher\u2014or stay higher.<\/p>\n<p>This week, buyers had their opportunities near the highs and could not sustain the momentum. Today, they are trying again from a different technical location: support.<\/p>\n<p>For traders, that creates a framework. Know where support is. Know what would invalidate the bounce. Know where the next resistance levels could stall a recovery.<\/p>\n<p>In the video above, I detail the technical levels in play and show why they matter.<\/p>\n<p>You need to prepare for your trade. Not just trade.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The USDCAD has seen plenty of up-and-down price action this week, but one message has been consistent: buyers have struggled to sustain momentum near the highs for the year. The highs from&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-440276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440276","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=440276"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440276\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=440276"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=440276"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=440276"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}