{"id":440368,"date":"2026-10-19T16:40:06","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T09:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/chart-of-the-day-frances-bond-market-is-flashing-another-warning-for-eur-usd-440368\/"},"modified":"2026-10-19T16:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T09:40:06","slug":"chart-of-the-day-frances-bond-market-is-flashing-another-warning-for-eur-usd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/chart-of-the-day-frances-bond-market-is-flashing-another-warning-for-eur-usd-440368\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart of the day: France’s bond market is flashing another warning for EUR\/USD"},"content":{"rendered":"
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It’s a brand new week, but same old problem for the euro. Once again, it is France that is giving the single currency yet another headache.<\/p>\n

The weekend riots across the country have piled more pressure on Macron’s government, just as investors are already questioning whether France can get its fiscal house in order. And the bond market is signaling that there isn’t much assurance of that, as the yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds has widened back towards 145 bps. That now draws the 150 bps mark back in the picture.<\/p>\n

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This once again continues to reaffirm where the pressure point is for the European bond market, with the spread having just hovered around 85 bps\u00a0at the beginning of September.<\/p>\n

France is already struggling with a ballooning fiscal deficit, political fragmentation, and a very difficult path towards budget consolidation. As such, the latest\u00a0unrest only makes it harder for the government to push through unpopular spending cuts.<\/p>\n

So, where does that leave the euro?<\/p>\n

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Well, EUR\/USD\u00a0is slipping back towards the 1.1200 level with sellers still firmly in control as price action continues to rest well below the 100-day (red line) and 200-day (blue line) moving averages.<\/p>\n

A firm break below 1.1200 would expose the October low around 1.1113 next, while any meaningful recovery needs to first get back above 1.1250 with the 23.6 Fib retracement level at around 1.1254 reinforcing the first resistance layer for the pair. After which, the 38.2 Fib retracement level closer to 1.1341 may come into play.<\/p>\n

For now,\u00a0the bigger risk here is that France’s troubles may be starting to spill over into broader euro area bond markets. If so, that could\u00a0turn what is currently a French political problem into something much more uncomfortable for the euro.<\/p>\n

If the\u00a0French-German yield spread at 150 bps gives way, I reckon the euro will be in for a very rough ride as get into the latter stages of October trading. As an aside, just be wary that Moody’s is set\u00a0to review France’s credit rating on 23 October. So, that’s another potential catalyst looming for euro traders.<\/p>\n

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This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s a brand new week, but same old problem for the euro. Once again, it is France that is giving the single currency yet another headache. The weekend riots across the country…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-440368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440368","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=440368"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440368\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=440368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=440368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=440368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}