{"id":440464,"date":"2026-10-20T18:40:06","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T11:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-indian-rupees-sharp-rebound-following-rbi-intervention-may-prove-temporary-amid-renewed-surge-in-oil-prices-440464\/"},"modified":"2026-10-20T18:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T11:40:06","slug":"the-indian-rupees-sharp-rebound-following-rbi-intervention-may-prove-temporary-amid-renewed-surge-in-oil-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-indian-rupees-sharp-rebound-following-rbi-intervention-may-prove-temporary-amid-renewed-surge-in-oil-prices-440464\/","title":{"rendered":"The Indian Rupee’s sharp rebound following RBI intervention may prove temporary amid renewed surge in oil prices"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar has recently
\n come under some pressure as Treasury yields dropped significantly following the
\n higher than expected US inflation data last week. <\/p>\n

The reaction might
\n seem illogical as higher inflation should lead to higher interest rates, but
\n the market might be starting to worry about growth. <\/p>\n

If economic
\n activity deteriorates, the Fed might be forced to keep a hawkish bias due to
\n persistent inflationary pressures. This could put further pressure on economic
\n growth and eventually require rate cuts. <\/p>\n

In fact, further
\n out the curve, we saw a slightly dovish repricing in interest rates
\n expectations despite hot inflation and no changes on the geopolitical side. <\/p>\n

If the market\u2019s
\n focus shifted to growth concerns, then the US Flash PMIs on Friday will be a
\n key test. Strong data could quell those fears and give the US dollar a boost. A
\n soft report, on the other hand, will likely increase growth concerns and put
\n further pressure on long-term Treasury yields and the greenback.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

INR:<\/p>\n

On the INR side, the
\n rupee rallied sharply last week after the RBI stepped in to curb its
\n depreciation through a combination of direct FX intervention and regulatory
\n measures. The central bank reportedly sold dollars to support the rupee, while
\n introducing a special facility to supply dollars directly to state-run oil
\n companies, redirecting significant dollar demand away from the spot market. <\/p>\n

It also tightened
\n FX derivative rules to make speculative dollar positions more expensive and
\n limit further pressure on the currency. These measures forced traders
\n positioned for further rupee weakness to reassess their exposure, triggering a
\n sharp rebound. However, the intervention does not resolve the underlying
\n pressures from elevated oil prices and foreign capital outflows.<\/p>\n

The main driver continues
\n to be oil. India is heavily dependent on imported crude, meaning higher oil
\n prices require Indian importers to buy more dollars to pay for energy,
\n increasing demand for USD and worsening the country’s trade and current-account
\n position. The current divergence with oil is therefore unlikely to last much
\n longer and we could see the rupee coming under more pressure in the next days.<\/p>\n

In the big
\n picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar,
\n so dip-buyers will continue to look for opportunities around strong major technical
\n levels to keep pushing the USD\/INR pair into new highs.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily
\n chart, we can see that USDINR<\/a>dropped all the way back to the major 95.10 support zone. The buyers
\n stepped in around the support, with a defined risk below it, to position for a
\n rally into the 96.10 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
\n see the price breaking lower to extend the drop into the 94.00 handle next.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour
\n chart, we have the most recent swing high around the 95.53 level that could act
\n as a minor resistance. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to
\n increase the bullish bets into the 96.10 resistance, while the sellers will
\n continue to step in around the level to keep targeting a break below the 95.10
\n support.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour
\n chart, there\u2019s not much we can add here as the market participants will look
\n for either a break above the 95.53 level or below the 95.10 support.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

On Thursday<\/a>, we get the latest US
\n Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Flash PMIs.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD: The US dollar has recently come under some pressure as Treasury yields dropped significantly following the higher than expected US inflation data last week. The reaction might seem illogical as higher…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-440464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440464","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=440464"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440464\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=440464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=440464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=440464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}