{"id":440641,"date":"2026-10-22T22:40:07","date_gmt":"2026-10-22T15:40:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/crude-oil-buyers-remain-in-control-from-a-technical-perspective-what-would-tilt-the-bias-lower-440641\/"},"modified":"2026-10-22T22:40:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-22T15:40:07","slug":"crude-oil-buyers-remain-in-control-from-a-technical-perspective-what-would-tilt-the-bias-lower","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/crude-oil-buyers-remain-in-control-from-a-technical-perspective-what-would-tilt-the-bias-lower-440641\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude oil buyers remain in control from a technical perspective. What would tilt the bias lower?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Middle East risks keep oil supported<\/p>\n<p>Crude oil is moving back toward the $100 level today as Middle East risks give buyers another reason to push prices higher.<\/p>\n<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/commodities\/the-market-can-t-shake-off-the-stalemate-in-the-middle-east\/\" rel=\"follow\">Adam\u2019s post<\/a>, he outlines the bullish fundamental backdrop for oil: increased military risks involving the US and Israel, a continuing stalemate, and recent Houthi activity in Saudi Arabia adding to the anxiety. A war that was supposed to be quick and easy continues to drag on, keeping concerns about energy supplies firmly in play.<\/p>\n<p>The fundamental story is supportive. The technical price action is helping to confirm that story.<\/p>\n<p>The moving averages help tell the story<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Since bottoming on October 6 near $86.93\u2014the 50% midpoint of the move higher from the July 2 low\u2014crude oil has recovered above its 100- and 200-hour moving averages, shown by the blue and green lines on the chart above. Those moving averages have since helped define support and keep the buyers in control.<\/p>\n<p>Initially, the 100-hour moving average provided support. More recently, sellers have managed to push below that faster-moving average, but the breaks have lacked follow-through. The rising 200-hour moving average has held, giving buyers a level to lean against before pushing the price back higher.<\/p>\n<p>That distinction is important for traders. A break below the 100-hour moving average gives sellers an opening. Holding above the 200-hour moving average keeps the buyers in play. To shift control, sellers need to break support and stay below it.<\/p>\n<p>Buyers regain the upper hand today<\/p>\n<p>Today followed that same pattern. The price moved below the 100-hour moving average, held above the 200-hour moving average, and then rebounded back above the 100-hour moving average at $98.23. That recovery puts the buyers back in firmer control as the price works toward $100.<\/p>\n<p>The sellers had their shot below the 100-hour moving average. They could not build on it. Now they need another break\u2014and more follow-through\u2014to threaten the buyers\u2019 control.<\/p>\n<p>What would change the technical picture?<\/p>\n<p>There are three downside levels to watch:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>$98.23: The 100-hour moving average. A move back below would give sellers some hope, especially if the price stays below.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>$97.00: The next support level. Breaking below would add to the evidence that sellers are gaining traction.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>$96.28: The rising 200-hour moving average. A sustained break below would tilt the short-term technical bias back toward the sellers.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Until those levels give way, the sellers have more to prove. Above the 100-hour moving average, buyers remain in control. Below that level but above the 200-hour moving average, buyers remain in play, although their grip becomes less secure.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>The trading lesson: Let price confirm the story<\/p>\n<p>The headlines help explain why oil is rising, but the technical levels help traders define risk and recognize when the price action stops supporting the story.<\/p>\n<p>You can have a bullish fundamental view and still need a level that tells you when that view is losing support. For crude oil, the moving averages provide those reference points.<\/p>\n<p>In the video above, I walk through those support levels, explain how the moving averages have guided the move higher, and outline what sellers need to do to take back control.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Middle East risks keep oil supported Crude oil is moving back toward the $100 level today as Middle East risks give buyers another reason to push prices higher. In Adam\u2019s post, he&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-440641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440641","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=440641"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440641\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=440641"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=440641"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=440641"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}