{"id":440751,"date":"2026-10-24T03:40:08","date_gmt":"2026-10-23T20:40:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/nzdusd-buyers-are-trying-to-make-a-play-the-38-2-retracement-remains-the-next-hurdle-440751\/"},"modified":"2026-10-24T03:40:08","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T20:40:08","slug":"nzdusd-buyers-are-trying-to-make-a-play-the-38-2-retracement-remains-the-next-hurdle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/nzdusd-buyers-are-trying-to-make-a-play-the-38-2-retracement-remains-the-next-hurdle-440751\/","title":{"rendered":"NZDUSD buyers are trying to make a play. The 38.2% retracement remains the next hurdle."},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The NZDUSD has moved higher on four of five trading days this week, giving buyers something to build on after a sharp decline from the August high. The recovery has included a failed break below the rising 100-hour moving average and two successful tests of that moving average today.<\/p>\n

Those are encouraging developments for the buyers. They are starting to show up on dips and defend a technical level.<\/p>\n

However, there is still work to do. The price remains below the 38.2% retracement of the August-to-October decline. Until that level is broken, the move higher remains a relatively modest correction within the broader move lower.<\/p>\n

A 422-pip decline left buyers with a hill to climb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

From the August 21 high near 0.5986 to the October 14 low near 0.5564, the NZDUSD fell 422 pips, or 7.05%.<\/p>\n

That was a sizable move. Sellers controlled the trend, and rallies along the way gave them opportunities to sell at higher levels.<\/p>\n

The buying started to gain more traction on October 16. Since then, the price has worked higher, moving back above its hourly moving averages and putting some distance between the current price and the October low.<\/p>\n

The question now is whether the buyers can turn that initial recovery into something more meaningful. To do that, they need to keep holding support below and start breaking resistance above.<\/p>\n

Sellers had their shot below the 100-hour MA<\/p>\n

Yesterday\u2019s correction lower (only decline over the last 4 trading days), took the price back below the rising 100-hour moving average. That gave sellers an opportunity to regain more control and interrupt the recovery.<\/p>\n

They could not sustain the break.<\/p>\n

Instead, the price snapped back above the moving average. Sellers had their shot and missed.<\/p>\n

Today, the price returned to the 100-hour MA twice, and both tests found buyers. That helps establish the moving average as a level traders are watching and leaning against.<\/p>\n

The 100-hour MA is near 0.56835 and rising. Stay above it, and the short-term bias remains more bullish. Buyers have a technical reason to stay involved and a nearby reference for defining their risk.<\/p>\n

The nearby swing area adds to the support<\/p>\n

The moving average also sits within a swing area between 0.56736 and 0.56860.<\/p>\n

That combination makes this an important support region. Buyers would prefer to keep the price above the rising 100-hour MA. If the price slips below it, the bottom of the swing area at 0.56736 becomes the next test.<\/p>\n

A sustained move below both would weaken the recovery and give sellers more confidence. The 200-hour MA near 0.56553 would then become another downside reference.<\/p>\n

For now, however, today\u2019s repeated holds at the 100-hour MA show buyers continuing to defend their position.<\/p>\n

The 38.2% retracement is the next hurdle<\/p>\n

On the topside, the next key target is the 38.2% retracement at 0.57258.<\/p>\n

I like to see the 38.2% retracement reached and broken as a minimum correction of a trend move. It helps show that buyers can take back a meaningful portion of the decline.<\/p>\n

The NZDUSD has not cleared that hurdle yet.<\/p>\n

Holding support is one part of the recovery. Breaking resistance is the next. A move above 0.57258\u2014and the ability to stay above it\u2014would strengthen the buyers\u2019 case and open the door for the next push higher.<\/p>\n

The 50% midpoint lines up with an old swing area<\/p>\n

Above the 38.2% retracement, attention turns toward the 0.5761\u20130.5777 swing area.<\/p>\n

That region has several historical turning points on the chart. The 50% midpoint at 0.57756 also sits near the upper end of the area, giving traders another technical reason to focus on it.<\/p>\n

Getting there would take back roughly half of the August-to-October decline. It would also bring the price into a region where sellers could look to lean against resistance.<\/p>\n

There are steps to take before that happens. The buyers are making a play, and this week\u2019s price action is giving them some encouragement. Now they need to keep the 100-hour MA underneath them and get through 0.57258 to keep the climb going.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The NZDUSD has moved higher on four of five trading days this week, giving buyers something to build on after a sharp decline from the August high. The recovery has included a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-440751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440751","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=440751"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440751\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=440751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=440751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=440751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}