{"id":440921,"date":"2026-10-27T21:40:16","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T14:40:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/sp-500-rebounds-as-us-iran-escalation-fears-fade-but-bearish-drivers-remain-intact-whats-next-440921\/"},"modified":"2026-10-27T21:40:16","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T14:40:16","slug":"sp-500-rebounds-as-us-iran-escalation-fears-fade-but-bearish-drivers-remain-intact-whats-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/sp-500-rebounds-as-us-iran-escalation-fears-fade-but-bearish-drivers-remain-intact-whats-next-440921\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 rebounds as US-Iran escalation fears fade, but bearish drivers remain intact. What’s next?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The S&P 500 sold off sharply last week as growth concerns, widening
\n credit spreads and the risk of renewed US-Iran strikes weighed on risk
\n sentiment. Although no new US attack has occurred so far, the risk of further
\n escalation remains elevated as we approach the US midterm elections.<\/p>\n

The fundamentals continue to point towards further downside, with very few bullish
\n drivers at the moment. Widening credit spreads, persistent inflation pressures,
\n elevated energy prices, geopolitical uncertainty and a hawkish Federal Reserve
\n are likely to limit any rebound. <\/p>\n

The Middle East crisis remains one of the key drivers. A de-escalation in
\n the Saudi-Houthi conflict or a surprise breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations
\n would likely trigger a sharp correction in oil prices, ease inflation concerns
\n and support the S&P 500. <\/p>\n

The focus has now shifted to the FOMC decision due tomorrow where the Fed
\n is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. A surprise rate hike would
\n trigger strong risk-off flows, particularly in the stock market as growth
\n concerns will likely intensify. <\/p>\n

A largely neutral outcome that avoids signalling an imminent rate hike
\n could be taken as dovish and trigger a relief rally in the S&P 500. I would
\n also expect the same reaction but with less magnitude in case the Fed just
\n delivers on the hawkish hold expectations, avoiding major surprises.<\/p>\n

With no new projections or dot plot expected at this meeting, changes in
\n Warsh’s or statement’s language will be the main focus.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On
\n the daily chart, <\/a>we can see that
\n <\/a>the S&P 500<\/a>(CFD contract) bounced from the key swing point around the 7,613 level.
\n If we get another move lower, we can expect the buyers to step in around the
\n swing level, with a defined risk below it, to position for a rally into new
\n record highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
\n breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 7,506 level next.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

S&P 500
\n TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On
\n the 4 hour chart,<\/a> we have a
\n downward trendline defining the bearish structure. We can expect the sellers to
\n lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above it, to keep targeting new
\n lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in
\n for a rally into new record highs, with the 7,770 level as the first target. <\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

S&P 500 TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we
\n have a minor upward trendline defining the current pullback. If the price falls
\n into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it, with a defined risk
\n below it, to target a break above the downward trendline. The sellers, on the
\n other hand, will look for a break lower to target a break below the 7,613 level.
\n The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>we
\n get the US Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow, we have the FOMC rate
\n decision. On Thursday, we get the US GDP report, the US PCE and the latest US
\n Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Employment
\n Cost Index. <\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 sold off sharply last week as growth concerns, widening credit spreads and the risk of renewed US-Iran strikes weighed on risk sentiment. Although no new US attack has occurred…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-440921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440921","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=440921"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440921\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=440921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=440921"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=440921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}