{"id":441028,"date":"2026-10-28T21:40:09","date_gmt":"2026-10-28T14:40:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-usdcad-is-trading-in-a-neutral-swing-area-ahead-of-the-bank-of-canada-rate-decision-441028\/"},"modified":"2026-10-28T21:40:09","modified_gmt":"2026-10-28T14:40:09","slug":"the-usdcad-is-trading-in-a-neutral-swing-area-ahead-of-the-bank-of-canada-rate-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-usdcad-is-trading-in-a-neutral-swing-area-ahead-of-the-bank-of-canada-rate-decision-441028\/","title":{"rendered":"The USDCAD is trading in a neutral swing area ahead of the Bank of Canada rate decision"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

BOC preview: A hike is favored, but the decision remains closely contested<\/p>\n

The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 AM ET, with expectations leaning toward a 25-basis-point increase to 2.50% from 2.25%. However, economists remain divided: 19 of 34 economists surveyed by Reuters forecast a hike, while money markets were pricing roughly a 77% probability of an increase ahead of the announcement.<\/p>\n

The policy debate centers on whether higher energy prices will spread into broader inflation. September headline inflation rose to 3.1%, while core measures eased below 2%. That leaves policymakers weighing the risk of persistent price pressures against the economic cost of raising rates. RBC expects a hike but describes its conviction as low, arguing that the Bank could instead signal an increase at a subsequent meeting.<\/p>\n

The accompanying Monetary Policy Report will provide updated forecasts and could be as important as the rate announcement itself. For USDCAD, the potential reaction depends on the guidance as well as the decision. A hike accompanied by a firm tightening bias could support the Canadian dollar and pressure USDCAD lower. A surprise hold or cautious guidance could give USDCAD buyers an opening.<\/p>\n

Moving averages define the buyers-versus-sellers battle<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

USDCAD is trading above its 100-hour moving average at 1.4021, but below the 100-day moving average at 1.40458 and the 200-hour moving average at 1.40525.<\/p>\n

Those levels provide the initial barometers through the decision. A sustained move above 1.40458\u20131.40525 would strengthen the bullish bias. A break below 1.4021 would give sellers more control. Between those boundaries, neither side has established a decisive advantage.<\/p>\n

Downside targets: 1.3995, then last week\u2019s low<\/p>\n

A break below 1.4021 would shift attention toward minor support near 1.3995.<\/p>\n

Below that, last week\u2019s low at 1.3966 becomes the next reference point. That low stalled just above the 1.3948\u20131.3963 swing area, reinforcing its importance. Sellers would need to push through that zone to open the door for a deeper decline.<\/p>\n

Upside targets: Buyers need to reclaim 1.40818<\/p>\n

A sustained break above the moving-average resistance band would bring last Wednesday\u2019s high and the broken 38.2% retracement at 1.40818 into focus.<\/p>\n

Getting above and holding that hurdle would open the upside toward the 1.4110 swing level, followed by the higher swing area between 1.41297 and 1.4153.<\/p>\n

Through the decision: Watch whether the break holds<\/p>\n

The first move will need confirmation. A push above resistance that quickly reverses, or a break below support that snaps back, would signal a potential failed break.<\/p>\n

For traders, the immediate roadmap is clear: bullish above 1.40525, bearish below 1.4021, with the ability to hold beyond those levels determining whether buyers or sellers can build momentum.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BOC preview: A hike is favored, but the decision remains closely contested The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 AM ET, with expectations leaning toward a 25-basis-point increase to…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441028","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441028"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441028\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}