{"id":441032,"date":"2026-10-28T22:00:07","date_gmt":"2026-10-28T15:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/indian-rupee-trims-gains-as-higher-oil-prices-put-renewed-pressure-despite-repeated-rbi-interventions-441032\/"},"modified":"2026-10-28T22:00:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-28T15:00:07","slug":"indian-rupee-trims-gains-as-higher-oil-prices-put-renewed-pressure-despite-repeated-rbi-interventions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/indian-rupee-trims-gains-as-higher-oil-prices-put-renewed-pressure-despite-repeated-rbi-interventions-441032\/","title":{"rendered":"Indian Rupee trims gains as higher oil prices put renewed pressure despite repeated RBI interventions"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep
\n interest rates unchanged. With no new projections or dot plot expected at this
\n meeting, changes in Fed Chair Warsh’s or statement’s language will be the main
\n focus.<\/p>\n

Despite higher September inflation data strengthening
\n the case for further tightening, key Fed members have signalled little urgency
\n to deliver a back-to-back rate hike in October. A hawkish hold remains the base
\n case as the debate centres around the timing and extent of further tightening
\n rather than direction.<\/p>\n

Warsh is expected to reiterate that monetary policy is
\n not sufficiently restrictive and that additional tightening is warranted. He’s
\n also seen reaffirming the commitment to price stability but cautioning against
\n overreacting to individual data points.<\/p>\n

Markets are already pricing an 80% chance of a rate
\n hike in December, so the focus will be more on the 2027 outlook. Traders see
\n roughly two more rate hikes next year, with the first fully priced in move in
\n April.<\/p>\n

A surprise rate hike would trigger strong risk-off
\n flows. The US dollar and Treasury yields might initially react positively to
\n the decision, but I think the reaction will be quickly faded as growth concerns
\n should intensify amid falling stock markets.<\/p>\n

A largely neutral outcome that avoids signalling an
\n imminent rate hike could be taken as dovish and trigger a correction in the US
\n dollar. I would also expect the same reaction but with less magnitude in case
\n the Fed just delivers on the hawkish hold expectations, avoiding major
\n surprises.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

INR:<\/p>\n

On the INR side, the
\n rupee started to erase the intervention-driven gains recently as oil prices
\n extended the gains into new highs. Despite repeated RBI interventions, oil
\n prices continue to be the main driver. <\/p>\n

India is heavily
\n dependent on imported crude, meaning higher oil prices require Indian importers
\n to buy more dollars to pay for energy, increasing demand for USD and worsening
\n the country’s trade and current-account position. <\/p>\n

In the big
\n picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar,
\n so dip-buyers will continue to look for opportunities around strong major technical
\n levels to keep pushing the USD\/INR pair into new highs.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily
\n chart, we can see that USDINR<\/a>rebounded from the major support zone around the 95.10 level as the
\n buyers stepped in to target a rally to the 96.10 resistance. If we get another
\n pullback to the support, we can expect the buyers to step in again, with a defined
\n risk below the support, to keep targeting the resistance. The sellers, on the
\n other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the drop into the 94.00 handle
\n next. <\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour
\n chart, the recent price action might have created an inverse head and shoulders
\n near the support zone. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the
\n neckline, with a defined risk above it, to keep pushing into new lows. The
\n buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally
\n into the 96.10 resistance next.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour
\n chart, there\u2019s not much we can add here as consolidation near the support could
\n lead to many fakeouts and a generally choppy price action. The key levels to
\n watch should be the neckline and the 95.10 support.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>we
\n have the FOMC rate decision. Tomorrow, we get the US GDP report, the US PCE and
\n the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the
\n US Employment Cost Index. <\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. With no new projections or dot plot expected at this meeting, changes in Fed Chair Warsh’s or statement’s language will…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441032","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441032","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441032"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441032\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441032"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441032"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441032"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}