{"id":441454,"date":"2026-11-03T21:40:15","date_gmt":"2026-11-03T14:40:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/never-tell-me-the-odds-prediction-markets-see-democrats-taking-control-of-house-and-senate-441454\/"},"modified":"2026-11-03T21:40:15","modified_gmt":"2026-11-03T14:40:15","slug":"never-tell-me-the-odds-prediction-markets-see-democrats-taking-control-of-house-and-senate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/never-tell-me-the-odds-prediction-markets-see-democrats-taking-control-of-house-and-senate-441454\/","title":{"rendered":"Never tell me the odds: Prediction markets see Democrats taking control of House and Senate"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Prediction markets are pointing to a Democratic sweep of Congress in today&#8217;s US midterm elections, with the odds of Democrats taking control of the Senate rising sharply in recent weeks.<\/p>\n<p>As of around 8 am ET on Tuesday, November 3, the latest prices from Kalshi and Polymarket show:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>House control: Democrats 94\u201395%, Republicans 6\u20137%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Senate control: Democrats 78%, Republicans 23\u201324%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Senate race has seen the biggest shift. Kalshi had Democratic control priced at 74% at midday Monday, up from 63% in early October and 44% in March.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the latest approximate Kalshi prices for some of the key Senate races:<\/p>\n<p>Kansas is the one that would be the big shocker. This is Mitch McConnell&#8217;s old seat, which he last won in 2020 by a margin of 57.76% to 38.23%. The odds flipped just in the past week.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m skeptical of that on but there have been some ghastly polls for Republicans lately. Of course, we&#8217;ve seen this playbook before with some pollsters calling the end of Trumpism on the eve of the 2024 election only for him to win big.<\/p>\n<p>Other notable races include North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper is priced at 97%, and Georgia, where Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff is at 96%.<\/p>\n<p>Republicans currently hold a 53\u201347 advantage in the Senate, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure outright control. As a crosscheck, UK bookmakers have about the same 75-78% odds of Democrats controlling the Senate.<\/p>\n<p>The House market is considerably more one-sided, with Democrats trading near 95% to regain control.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Nate Silver\u2019s model gives Democrats 82% for the Senate and 96% for the House. Poliwave has Democrats at 85% for the Senate.<\/p>\n<p>The first meaningful clues should arrive around 7:15\u20138:00 pm ET tonight, with a much clearer picture by 9\u201310 pm. The earliest races to watch are in Kentucky, Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio.<\/p>\n<p>Focus on two things: the Democratic margin relative to the 2024 presidential electionin early-reporting House districts, and whether Republicans are outperforming or underperforming expectations in the Senate races.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prediction markets are pointing to a Democratic sweep of Congress in today&#8217;s US midterm elections, with the odds of Democrats taking control of the Senate rising sharply in recent weeks. As of&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441454","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441454"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441454\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441454"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441454"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441454"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}