{"id":441462,"date":"2026-11-04T00:40:15","date_gmt":"2026-11-03T17:40:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/bocs-macklem-there-could-be-a-need-to-raise-the-policy-rate-further-441462\/"},"modified":"2026-11-04T00:40:15","modified_gmt":"2026-11-03T17:40:15","slug":"bocs-macklem-there-could-be-a-need-to-raise-the-policy-rate-further","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/bocs-macklem-there-could-be-a-need-to-raise-the-policy-rate-further-441462\/","title":{"rendered":"BOC&#8217;s Macklem: There could be a need to raise the policy rate further"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>From Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>There could be a need to raise the policy rate further<\/li>\n<li>Will proceed carefully given uncertainties<\/li>\n<li>Decisions will be taken one meeting at a time<\/li>\n<li>Outlook for inflation has deteriorated<\/li>\n<li>Hike needed to reduce risk elevated energy prices become generalized inflation<\/li>\n<li>Less scope for monetary accommodation<\/li>\n<li>Cost pass-through expected to increase over the next year<\/li>\n<li>Growth outlook has improved modestly despite US trade actions<\/li>\n<li>Growth likely to slow in Q4 as new US tariffs weigh<\/li>\n<li>CPI seen rising to about 3.5% by year-end<\/li>\n<li>Inflation to stay at or above 3% through much of 2027<\/li>\n<li>Indicators continue to point to some excess supply<\/li>\n<li>Uncertainty still elevated on Middle East, Canada-US trade<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We heard most of this after the Bank of Canada meeting. He isn&#8217;t acknowledging some recent weakness in Canadian economic data but he might be pressed on that. The market is divided about the December meeting with a 56% chance of a hike priced in and about 75 bps priced in over the coming year.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">He kept the door open to further tightening in his opening statement, saying there \u201ccould be a need to raise the policy rate further\u201d after last week\u2019s 25 bp hike to 2.50%, the first increase since July 2023. He tempered that with a pledge to proceed carefully and take decisions one meeting at a time.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The case rests on oil. Persistently high crude and refinery margins have kept CPI near 3% since April, and the BOC sees it climbing to about 3.5% by year-end and staying at or above 3% through much of 2027. Macklem flagged rising cost pass-through from businesses and a recovering economy as reasons the energy shock could become more persistent. Growth is expected to dip in Q4 on new US tariffs before rebounding to about 2% in 2027-28. He still noted some excess supply in the economy, which makes this a hawkish-but-cautious tone rather than a commitment to a hiking cycle.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem: There could be a need to raise the policy rate further Will proceed carefully given uncertainties Decisions will be taken one meeting at a time&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441462"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441462\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}