{"id":441464,"date":"2026-11-04T01:40:09","date_gmt":"2026-11-03T18:40:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/history-is-kind-to-buyers-of-stock-markets-today-441464\/"},"modified":"2026-11-04T01:40:09","modified_gmt":"2026-11-03T18:40:09","slug":"history-is-kind-to-buyers-of-stock-markets-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/history-is-kind-to-buyers-of-stock-markets-today-441464\/","title":{"rendered":"History is kind to buyers of stock markets today"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

If history is any indication, it won’t be the elephants or donkeys that win the election tonight, it will be the bulls.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Here is a chart showing the return for the S&P 500 in the six months after election day.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

That’s a remarkable streak with the worst-ever period a +3.3%, or nearly 7% annualized. In contrast there have been some huge gains at various points.<\/p>\n

The recent selloff in stock markets has re-based the market to a somewhat better spot. The fear and greed index is also in a spot that’s a great one for the bulls.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Similarly, the AAII sentiment survey has bearishness at 41.4% against a 31.5% historical average.<\/p>\n

What I fear is that I’ve seen way too much of these post-midterms numbers and it feels like everyone is already positioned for it. What really matters is AI from here and how spending develops in the months ahead. The post-earnings reactions in the past week or so have been troubling and the megacap names are looking at issuing equity as bond markets close up.<\/p>\n

I have a hard time seeing how they can quickly demonstrate the wisdom of data center spending in a ‘prove it’ market. Yesterday’s bearish reversal was an ugly one and Google is now 31% from its yearly high as search is distrupted.<\/p>\n

The catalyst I would look for isn’t the midterms but what happens in Iran. If oil prices can start to tumble then inflation will follow and rate cuts will come. That would be a powerful tonic, paritcularly if tariffs are rolled back at the same time.\u00a0<\/p>\n

For now, we will watch the election results roll in and I tend to think the best result would be a strong Democratic showing that kicks off some kind of return to normalcy in Washington and cements anti-war as a non-negotiable vote-winner. It’s going to be a crazy 24 hours but the sun will rise tomorrow and America will still have plenty of great companies to invest in. It’s the same playbook in most elections, though Brazil is a powerful reminder that’s not always the case.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If history is any indication, it won’t be the elephants or donkeys that win the election tonight, it will be the bulls.\u00a0 Here is a chart showing the return for the S&P…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441464","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441464"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441464\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}