{"id":441551,"date":"2026-11-04T19:40:05","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T12:40:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/aud-usd-rebounds-above-0-7000-as-us-dollar-slides-but-key-technical-hurdles-remain-441551\/"},"modified":"2026-11-04T19:40:05","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T12:40:05","slug":"aud-usd-rebounds-above-0-7000-as-us-dollar-slides-but-key-technical-hurdles-remain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/aud-usd-rebounds-above-0-7000-as-us-dollar-slides-but-key-technical-hurdles-remain-441551\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD rebounds above 0.7000 as US dollar slides but key technical hurdles remain"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Just when it looked like the aussie might be ready to throw in the towel this week, the dollar comes along to offer a helping hand. Talk about good timing, eh?<\/p>\n

AUD\/USD is bouncing back above the 0.7000 mark today, with the pair now trading around 0.7010 as the dollar comes under pressure following the US midterm elections.\u00a0The rebound we’re seeing is helping to undo the attempted downside break below the figure level after the RBA decision yesterday. However, I wouldn’t get too carried away just yet.<\/p>\n

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Looking at the hourly chart,\u00a0the latest push higher is running into resistance around 0.7020 from the 200-hour moving average (blue line). That remains the first hurdle for buyers to clear before attempting any stronger recovery.<\/p>\n

And even then,\u00a0the daily chart isn’t exactly rolling out the red carpet either.<\/p>\n

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The 100-day (red line) and 200-day (blue line) moving averages, sitting in between 0.7030 and 0.7056, are still keeping a lid on any further upside momentum. And until buyers can break through those levels, I’d argue that the broader technical picture remains rather unconvincing at this stage.<\/p>\n

It doesn’t help that the RBA isn’t offering much encouragement as well.\u00a0Despite raising the cash rate to 4.85% (its highest in 18 years), the 6-3 split vote and Bullock’s suggestion that policymakers should take stock of previous tightening have dampened expectations of further rate hikes.<\/p>\n

As such, that leaves the dollar side of the equation to do most of the heavy lifting. And in looking at that, the key question now is\u00a0what changes after the US midterms?<\/p>\n

Well, let’s start with what a Democratic sweep might mean for markets. The result\u00a0is essentially throwing a spanner into Trump’s policy agenda, with markets now weighing the prospects of greater political gridlock and tougher scrutiny of AI investment and data centre expansion. However,\u00a0I think the bigger wildcard is what happens with the US-Iran war.<\/p>\n

The question now is does\u00a0Trump take the election setback as a reason to pursue a diplomatic resolution? Or does he double down on military action?<\/p>\n

If Trump opts for the latter, that means we will see renewed escalation and heightened geopolitical tensions take over again. That will mean higher oil prices, which will then revive inflation concerns. And that will potentially keep Treasury yields elevated and trigger another flight to safety. In that scenario, the dollar could find renewed support while the aussie gets caught in another risk-off beatdown.<\/p>\n

But if we do see Trump take a step back, then oil prices could retreat further and that will help ease inflation pressures as well as lift broader risk sentiment.\u00a0That would be a welcome combination for the aussie, especially if lower inflation expectations also drag Treasury yields and the dollar down.<\/p>\n

But\u00a0with the US and Iran still far apart on key demands, I would be remiss not to point out that neither outcome should be taken for granted.<\/p>\n

For now, I see the AUD\/USD move today as a dollar-driven rebound more so than a convincing aussie comeback. And the bottom line is that until the moving averages give way on the charts on both the near-term and the daily timeframe, then buyers still have plenty of work to do to really convince of a renewed leg higher in the currency pair.<\/p>\n

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This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Just when it looked like the aussie might be ready to throw in the towel this week, the dollar comes along to offer a helping hand. Talk about good timing, eh? AUD\/USD…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441551","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441551"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441551\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441551"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441551"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441551"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}