{"id":441554,"date":"2026-11-04T20:40:14","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T13:40:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/eur-usd-rebounds-as-midterm-results-put-the-dollar-under-pressure-as-markets-reassess-fiscal-outlook-441554\/"},"modified":"2026-11-04T20:40:14","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T13:40:14","slug":"eur-usd-rebounds-as-midterm-results-put-the-dollar-under-pressure-as-markets-reassess-fiscal-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/eur-usd-rebounds-as-midterm-results-put-the-dollar-under-pressure-as-markets-reassess-fiscal-outlook-441554\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD rebounds as midterm results put the dollar under pressure as markets reassess fiscal outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The Democrats\u2019 victory in the US midterm elections has
\n weighed on the US dollar on expected fiscal restraint. <\/p>\n

This also comes amid an overstretched market, as long
\n dollar has been one of the most crowded trades this year, so it remains
\n vulnerable to quick reversals on changing macroeconomic conditions.<\/p>\n

The focus will now shift back to the US-Iran negotiations
\n and the US economic data. A diplomatic breakthrough could put renewed pressure
\n on the greenback on lower inflation concerns and rate hike expectations. <\/p>\n

An escalation, on the other hand, could initially support
\n the US dollar on risk-off flows, but eventually weigh on it once growth fears
\n replace growth concerns. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

EUR:<\/p>\n

On the EUR side, the ECB held
\n interest rates unchanged as widely expected but President Lagarde revealed that
\n they actually debated raising rates at the October meeting but decided to wait
\n for more information. <\/p>\n

She also suggested that if
\n the current inflation assessment is confirmed by incoming data, the direction
\n of travel is relatively clear, which is more tightening. The market is already
\n pricing in a 72% chance of a rate hike in December. <\/p>\n

On Friday, there\u2019s the tentative
\n French budget vote on the revenue part (it\u2019s already been delayed a couple of
\n times and could happen again). The full budget vote is scheduled for November
\n 17. The vote matters as a test of the government’s ability to deliver fiscal
\n consolidation. <\/p>\n

A smooth passage would
\n offer some relief and could give the euro a boost, while a rejection or major
\n concessions that weaken the deficit-reduction plan could put further pressure
\n on French bonds and the euro. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

EURUSD TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that EURUSD<\/a>is trading at the resistance
\n zone around the 1.1280 level. We can expect the sellers to step in around the
\n resistance, with a defined risk above it, to target a break below the 1.1067
\n level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
\n higher to pile in for a rally into the major downward trendline around the
\n 1.1500 handle. <\/p>\n

EURUSD TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we
\n have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback,
\n we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk below
\n it, to keep targeting new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for
\n a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.<\/p>\n

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013
\n 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, there\u2019s
\n not much we can add here as the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup
\n around the resistance, while the buyers will look for a breakout or a bounce
\n around the trendline to target new highs. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a> we have the US ADP and
\n the US ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures.
\n On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and the University of
\n Michigan Consumer sentiment survey. <\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD: The Democrats\u2019 victory in the US midterm elections has weighed on the US dollar on expected fiscal restraint. This also comes amid an overstretched market, as long dollar has been one…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441554","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441554","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441554"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441554\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441554"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441554"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441554"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}