{"id":441569,"date":"2026-11-05T02:40:19","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T19:40:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/trump-says-election-loss-was-largely-a-result-of-the-iran-war-441569\/"},"modified":"2026-11-05T02:40:19","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T19:40:19","slug":"trump-says-election-loss-was-largely-a-result-of-the-iran-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/trump-says-election-loss-was-largely-a-result-of-the-iran-war-441569\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump says election loss was largely a result of the Iran war"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li>It&#8217;s largely true election loss was the result of the Iran war<\/li>\n<li>It was worth it<\/li>\n<li>You can&#8217;t let Iran have a nuclear weapon<\/li>\n<li>I&#8217;ll get along probably with Democrats<\/li>\n<li>If I were on the ballot we would have won<\/li>\n<li>We weren&#8217;t able to transfer the love to candidates<\/li>\n<li>It would destroy Democratic Part if they impeach me<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Notably, JD Vance wrote at length about the election loss and also blamed the Iran war. It&#8217;s worth reading but it doesn&#8217;t mean that Trump and Republicans will finally put an end to the war. At the same time, WTI crude oil is down $7.83 today to $88.25, which is a sign the market says that it will either be Trump or Congress that puts an end to an extremely unpopular war.<\/p>\n<p>Vance:<\/p>\n<p>One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was &#8220;composition&#8221;\u2014whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win.<\/p>\n<p>And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic.<\/p>\n<p>There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.<\/p>\n<p>So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we&#8217;re going to shock the world?<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;No,&#8221; he told me. &#8220;We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump\/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Well, that looks prophetic now.<\/p>\n<p>Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout.<\/p>\n<p>The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump\/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is.<\/p>\n<p>One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn\u2019t sharp enough down the stretch. I\u2019m sure that\u2019s true.<\/p>\n<p>But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.<\/p>\n<p>Another pollster\u2014one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we\u2019d lose the generic ballot by 13 points.<\/p>\n<p>I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this.<\/p>\n<p>In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team.<\/p>\n<p>The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:<\/p>\n<ol start=\"1\">\n<li>\n<p>End the war<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Focus on cost of living\/inflation<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Put America First<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Change our relationship to Israel<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>This is according to a pollster who nailed the results.<\/p>\n<p>While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She\u2019s also a great person.)<\/p>\n<p>In the next few months, there&#8217;s going to be a lot of gaslighting.<\/p>\n<p>Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m open to the idea that we should change enforcement\u2014by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance.<\/p>\n<p>But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.<\/p>\n<p>The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.<\/p>\n<p>If you&#8217;d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so.<\/p>\n<p>Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that&#8217;s at least honest.<\/p>\n<p>But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.<\/p>\n<p>I remain hopeful about our country.<\/p>\n<p>To the people who are pissed off and want to say, \u201cI told you so\u201d: you\u2019re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview.<\/p>\n<p>To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s largely true election loss was the result of the Iran war It was worth it You can&#8217;t let Iran have a nuclear weapon I&#8217;ll get along probably with Democrats If I&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441569","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441569"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441569\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}