{"id":441648,"date":"2026-11-05T18:40:16","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T11:40:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/oil-prices-tumble-as-republicans-midterm-loss-sparks-bets-on-iran-war-exit-trump-still-has-the-final-say-441648\/"},"modified":"2026-11-05T18:40:16","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T11:40:16","slug":"oil-prices-tumble-as-republicans-midterm-loss-sparks-bets-on-iran-war-exit-trump-still-has-the-final-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/oil-prices-tumble-as-republicans-midterm-loss-sparks-bets-on-iran-war-exit-trump-still-has-the-final-say-441648\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil prices tumble as Republicans’ midterm loss sparks bets on Iran war exit; Trump still has the final say"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Crude oil broke below the lower bound of the channel yesterday and extended
\n the selloff after the US Vice President Vance blamed the war with Iran for the Republicans\u2019 heavy losses
\n in the midterm elections. <\/p>\n

The selloff started
\n right when he published the post on X<\/a>, as it reinforced
\n market expectations that the Trump administration could seek an off-ramp from
\n the war rather than escalate military operations.<\/p>\n

Keep in mind, though, that Trump can legally continue military
\n operations against Iran even if Democrats control both the House and the
\n Senate. So, it\u2019s not that simple to force Trump out of the war now that he has
\n nothing to lose. But for now, this seems the scenario the market is betting on.\n <\/p>\n

Looking ahead, the focus will remain on US-Iran negotiations. A
\n breakthrough would increase the bearish momentum significantly and take oil
\n prices back to pre-war levels relatively quickly. An escalation, on the other
\n hand, could trigger another rally on a rising risk premium, although there\u2019s
\n also a chance that it could be short-lived if Trump launches limited strikes
\n just to save face before exiting the war. \u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL
\n TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that crude oil<\/a>(CFD contract) broke below
\n the channel yesterday and extended the losses into the 87.00 handle before
\n pausing. We can expect the buyers to step in around these levels, with a
\n defined risk below the 87.00 handle, to position for a rally into the 110.00
\n resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to
\n increase the bearish bets into the 68.00 support next, with the 80.00 handle as
\n the first target.<\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we have
\n a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. If we get a pullback, we
\n can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above it,
\n to keep targeting new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a
\n break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 110.00 resistance next.<\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, there\u2019s
\n not much we can add here, although a break above the 89.00 handle could increase
\n the bullish momentum and extend the pullback into the downward trendline. From
\n a risk management perspective, the buyers have a great risk to reward setup
\n around these levels to target new highs, while the sellers will need a pullback
\n to the downward trendline to have a better setup. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>we
\n get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with
\n the US NFP report and the University of Michigan Consumer sentiment survey. The
\n focus will remain on US-Iran negotiations.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Crude oil broke below the lower bound of the channel yesterday and extended the selloff after the US Vice President Vance blamed the war with Iran for the Republicans\u2019 heavy losses in…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441648","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441648"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441648\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441648"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441648"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441648"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}