{"id":441658,"date":"2026-11-05T22:00:07","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T15:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/morning-kickstart-boe-hikes-to-4-as-sterling-struggles-to-hold-its-gains-441658\/"},"modified":"2026-11-05T22:00:07","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T15:00:07","slug":"morning-kickstart-boe-hikes-to-4-as-sterling-struggles-to-hold-its-gains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/morning-kickstart-boe-hikes-to-4-as-sterling-struggles-to-hold-its-gains-441658\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Kickstart: BOE hikes to 4% as sterling struggles to hold its gains"},"content":{"rendered":"
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In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs\u2014EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD\u2014from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.<\/p>\n

The Bank of England raised Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% as expected. All nine policymakers favored a hike, versus seven expected, but the formal vote on the quarter-point move was 8\u20131. Catherine Mann wanted a larger, 50-basis-point increase to 4.25%. GBPUSD traded as high as 1.3506 during the session and is now back at 1.3467, little changed on the day. Bank of England decision and minutes<\/a><\/p>\n

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said today\u2019s quarter-point hike to 4% was justified by inflation pressures already in the pipeline, even after the latest drop in oil prices. He said the hike does not necessarily mark the start of a series, but the case for another 25 basis points could be fairly strong if the US\u2013Iran conflict remains unresolved. Further progress toward a resolution could reduce the need for additional hikes and allow inflation to peak somewhat below 5%. Bailey said the UK economy has been more resilient than expected, though the strength has been concentrated, with AI investment accounting for about a fifth of GDP growth. Private-sector wage growth is expected to change little in the coming months, while food and core goods inflation are likely to pick up. How long the conflict lasts and how energy costs feed through to broader inflation will help determine the BOE\u2019s next move.<\/p>\n

UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September, and the BOE expects it to approach 5% by mid-2027 as higher energy prices feed into household and business bills. Stronger-than-expected activity helped make the case for today\u2019s hike. For the next decision, I\u2019ll be watching whether those higher costs start showing up in wages and a wider range of prices. The BOE still sees limited evidence of that spillover. This morning\u2019s UK construction PMI, meanwhile, fell to 43.6 from 46.1, below the 46.4 forecast.<\/p>\n

The dollar is mixed and the moves are small<\/p>\n

The dollar\u2019s biggest gain is against the Swiss franc, with USDCHF up 0.10%. It is down the most against the Canadian dollar and euro, both by about 0.06%. The dollar is also modestly lower against the New Zealand dollar and yen, and slightly higher against the pound and Australian dollar. With changes this small, I\u2019m watching the edges of the session ranges for a better read on who is taking control.<\/p>\n

SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel reiterated that the policy rate remains the central bank\u2019s main tool, with foreign exchange intervention available when needed. He noted that Switzerland is highly exposed to external economic shocks and that the Swiss franc has relatively strong safe-haven characteristics compared with other currencies. Schlegel said the SNB\u2019s monetary policy strategy works across a broad range of conditions and that the central bank has fulfilled its mandate of maintaining price stability over the medium term.<\/p>\n

How much of a normal day\u2019s range has traded?<\/p>\n

The ranges below use the session highs and lows and the 22-day average ranges.<\/p>\n