{"id":441669,"date":"2026-11-06T03:40:17","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T20:40:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-market-is-waiting-for-signals-from-donald-trump-441669\/"},"modified":"2026-11-06T03:40:17","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T20:40:17","slug":"the-market-is-waiting-for-signals-from-donald-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-market-is-waiting-for-signals-from-donald-trump-441669\/","title":{"rendered":"The market is waiting for signals from Donald Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

I spoke to Reuters earlier today about the state of markets and my comments <\/a>boiled down to this:<\/p>\n

“There are two \u200bpaths Trump can go down – he can double down on unpopular trade \u200bwars or he can listen to the electorate and change course,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at investingLive.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That’s the crossroads we are at right now and I think it shows some of the tension in markets.<\/p>\n

An early sign we got was on replacing Pete Hegseth:<\/p>\n

\u201cNo, I think he\u2019s doing a very good job.\u201d<\/p>\n

Of course, Trump has said that many times before replacing staff, so\u00a0I wouldn’t take it as the final word. It’s worth noting though that George H. W.\u00a0Bush fired\u00a0Donald Rumsfeld the day after the 2006 midterms, in large part due to the unpopular Iran war.<\/p>\n

Trump did also\u00a0tease at Hegseth taking the Tennessee Senate seat after its senator won the Governorship, soemthing he could in January.<\/p>\n

Alternatively, House member Thomas Massie has\u00a0pledge to start impeach\u00a0Hegseth, and there’s ample evidence that they could get the votes to do it, either before or after the new Congress is sworn in. Many\u00a0Senators will be looking to reframe their anti-war, America First chops and\u00a0Hegseth is a convenient scapegoat.<\/p>\n

At the same time,\u00a0there is a big distinction in how he’s removed.\u00a0If it’s\u00a0from Trump,\u00a0it will be a sign that he’s sick of the Iran war and will end it.\u00a0If it’s\u00a0Congress, that still leaves a pro-war\u00a0President in power.<\/p>\n

In terms of the timeline, earlier NYT reporting about three aircraft\u00a0carriers in the Gulf was incorrect. The USS Roosevelt will arrive in the Gulf in mid-November and that could be the window for strikes. There is talk the\u00a0USS George Washington\u00a0needs to depart the area soon so there is only a short overlap.<\/p>\n

There is a similar dynamic\u00a0unfolding around tariffs.\u00a0Congress\u00a0has lost patience with USMCA tariffs and perhaps some others. Expect some action on that either in the lame duck session or early next year. <\/p>\n

Again, Trump has the option of cutting a deal beforehand and there’s talk deals are close with Canada and\u00a0Mexico. If he does that,\u00a0it could bring down the temperature but Congress may still want to go further and repeal some tariffs\u00a0to show they’re fighting to bring down the cost of living.<\/p>\n

One thing that worries me is that Trump reposted this message:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

If he decides to double down on his worst instincts, it will\u00a0keep inflation high, make the Fed’s job harder and likely lead the market to price in even more Democrat gains in 2028.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I spoke to Reuters earlier today about the state of markets and my comments boiled down to this: “There are two \u200bpaths Trump can go down – he can double down on…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441669","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441669"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441669\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441669"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441669"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441669"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}