{"id":441674,"date":"2026-11-06T11:40:05","date_gmt":"2026-11-06T04:40:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/nasdaq-analysis-after-yesterdays-crash-is-this-the-dip-investors-have-been-waiting-for-441674\/"},"modified":"2026-11-06T11:40:05","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T04:40:05","slug":"nasdaq-analysis-after-yesterdays-crash-is-this-the-dip-investors-have-been-waiting-for","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/nasdaq-analysis-after-yesterdays-crash-is-this-the-dip-investors-have-been-waiting-for-441674\/","title":{"rendered":"Nasdaq analysis after yesterday&#8217;s crash: Is this the dip investors have been waiting for?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Nasdaq futures rebound after a 16.6% plunge. Is this a dip to buy or a rally to sell?<\/p>\n<p>Nasdaq futures have bounced nearly 800 points from a major historical support zone, but Wall Street&#8217;s earnings mood remains defensive. With another important economic report approaching, Friday could provide a crucial test of whether buyers are returning or the bearish trend is simply taking a break.<\/p>\n<p>November 6, 2026 | Nasdaq-100 E-mini Futures (NQ)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Nasdaq-100 futures have fallen 5,250 points, or 16.61%, from their October high in just 23 trading sessions. Yet the latest decline has brought NQ into a particularly interesting support zone around 26,350-26,400, where buyers have finally responded.<\/p>\n<p>Is this a dip worth buying? Possibly. But the price recovery, while impressive, remains unconfirmed, and the broader earnings environment gives me reasons to remain cautious.<\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq selloff has been brutal, but the latest low is interesting<\/p>\n<p>Thursday&#8217;s session delivered another reminder of how quickly market sentiment can change.<\/p>\n<p>The cash Nasdaq-100 index declined 6.36%, its worst single-day performance since 2020, with selling particularly severe across artificial intelligence, semiconductors and data-center infrastructure companies.<\/p>\n<p>As <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/stocks\/nasdaq-100-suffers-worst-day-since-2020\/\" rel=\"follow\">investingLive reported in its review of the Nasdaq-100 selloff<\/a>, the pressure extended well beyond a handful of high-profile technology stocks.<\/p>\n<p>The decline was also visible in the broader market. <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/stocks\/europe-close-ai-and-chip-liquidation-drags-equities-lower\/\" rel=\"follow\">European trading saw US technology and chip liquidation intensify<\/a>, although European equity markets themselves delivered a more mixed performance.<\/p>\n<p>But while the headlines describe a market under considerable pressure, the futures chart offers another perspective.<\/p>\n<p>From an October high of 31,616.50, Nasdaq futures have declined to 26,366.50 in the latest overnight session.<\/p>\n<p>That is a decline of exactly 5,250 points, or approximately 16.61%.<\/p>\n<p>And the location of that low matters.<\/p>\n<p>Why 26,350-26,400 is more than just another support level<\/p>\n<p>The longer-term futures chart identifies two previous major highs:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>26,399: An important historical high.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>26,349: Another major historical high.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>26,366.50: The latest low reached during the selloff.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These three prices are clustered within just 50 points of each other.<\/p>\n<p>When markets break above previous highs, those former resistance areas can sometimes become support during subsequent corrections.<\/p>\n<p>The logic is straightforward: a price area where sellers previously stopped an advance may later attract buying when the market returns from above.<\/p>\n<p>That does not always happen, of course.<\/p>\n<p>But in this case, the response has been encouraging. Nasdaq futures rebounded to approximately 27,159, recovering nearly 793 points from their latest low.<\/p>\n<p>For traders watching for signs of a possible bottom, this is an important development.<\/p>\n<p>Still, I would distinguish between a successful initial defense of support and a confirmed reversal of the wider downtrend.<\/p>\n<p>The futures market has recovered only about 15% of the preceding 5,250-point decline. There is still considerable technical damage to repair.<\/p>\n<p>Earnings season offers another warning: Investors are becoming selective<\/p>\n<p>I also think we should look beyond the Nasdaq chart to understand what may happen next.<\/p>\n<p>The latest earnings season has been notably defensive.<\/p>\n<p>In a provisional review of 337 companies with usable earnings-reaction data through November 5, approximately 35.3% recorded positive reactions. The equal-weighted average reaction was around -3.59%, compared with approximately -1.23% on a market-capitalization-weighted basis.<\/p>\n<p>These are preliminary estimates based on mixed-source observations, not a complete census of final earnings returns. Nevertheless, the imbalance is worth monitoring.<\/p>\n<p>It suggests that investors have been more inclined to punish disappointing reports than to reward companies broadly.<\/p>\n<p>But the most recent earnings announcements also reveal an interesting exception.<\/p>\n<p>In the latest available after-hours observations:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Airbnb (ABNB): Up approximately 11.0% following earnings.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Cloudflare (NET): Up approximately 14.1%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>DraftKings (DKNG): Down approximately 21.7%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Atlassian (TEAM): Down approximately 16.5%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These are provisional extended-hours reactions measured against their respective pre-earnings regular-session references, not completed Friday returns.<\/p>\n<p>What interests me here is the contrast.<\/p>\n<p>Investors are clearly still willing to reward individual companies, sometimes quite aggressively. However, the differences between winners and losers remain extreme.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier in the week, initial positive reactions in companies such as AMD and Arista Networks also struggled to retain their gains.<\/p>\n<p>That creates an additional question for Friday: Will the latest earnings winners retain their gains when regular trading begins, or will renewed selling pressure overwhelm them?<\/p>\n<p>For Nasdaq traders, this matters because a more sustainable index rebound would be more convincing if it were accompanied by improving technology-sector participation and stronger follow-through after earnings.<\/p>\n<p>These individual earnings reactions are evidence of market selectivity, not a calculation of their contribution to NQ futures.<\/p>\n<p>The AI trade is also facing a different question<\/p>\n<p>The market is reconsidering the economics of the enormous AI infrastructure buildout.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, as Adam Button discussed in <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/the-market-is-telling-the-hyperscalers-it-s-happy-about-a-slower-data-center-buildout\/\" rel=\"follow\">why markets might welcome a slower data-center expansion<\/a>, reduced capital spending could actually benefit some of the largest technology platforms by improving free cash flow.<\/p>\n<p>That creates an important distinction between companies spending heavily on AI infrastructure and those supplying the chips, equipment, power and construction capacity.<\/p>\n<p>A slower buildout might help the finances of some hyperscalers while hurting demand expectations for some of their suppliers.<\/p>\n<p>The market is not necessarily abandoning AI. It may be questioning the timing, scale and financial returns of the investment cycle.<\/p>\n<p>For Nasdaq investors, this distinction could become increasingly important over the coming months.<\/p>\n<p>Friday&#8217;s Nasdaq tradeCompass: Two important activation levels<\/p>\n<p>Turning back to the futures chart, my directional assessment remains -5 on a scale from -10 to +10, reflecting a bearish broader structure despite the developing rebound.<\/p>\n<p>However, that assessment is not a prediction that Friday must be a negative session.<\/p>\n<p>The following tradeCompass scenarios provide conditional reference points based on the latest available 30-minute futures chart.<\/p>\n<p>Bullish scenario: Above 27,200<\/p>\n<p>Buyers have encountered resistance around 27,135-27,160 during the latest recovery.<\/p>\n<p>I would prefer to see NQ establish sustained trading above 27,200 before treating the rebound as a stronger intraday bullish opportunity.<\/p>\n<p>A brief move through the level would not necessarily be sufficient. Ideally, buyers would demonstrate that they can hold recovered ground when sellers return.<\/p>\n<p>Potential bullish partial profit targets:<\/p>\n<p>The second target is particularly interesting because it is positioned just beneath a previous value-area resistance boundary around 27,488.50.<\/p>\n<p>A successful recovery above this region would represent a more meaningful improvement in the short-term technical structure.<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, if NQ breaks above 27,200 but quickly returns below the nearby recovery area, the bullish scenario would lose credibility.<\/p>\n<p>Importantly, a recovery toward these targets would still not automatically confirm that the larger correction has ended.<\/p>\n<p>Bearish scenario: Below 26,850<\/p>\n<p>The bearish scenario becomes more attractive if sellers regain control and NQ establishes sustained trading below 26,850.<\/p>\n<p>That would indicate a deterioration in the recovery structure and a loss of the nearby support concentration around 26,880.<\/p>\n<p>Potential bearish partial profit targets:<\/p>\n<p>TP4 is conditional on a decisive breakdown below the 26,350-26,400 historical support zone.<\/p>\n<p>This distinction matters.<\/p>\n<p>The area around 26,350-26,400 has already attracted meaningful buying interest. I would not assume that sellers can simply push through it without another contest.<\/p>\n<p>The third bearish target, at 26,415, is therefore positioned ahead of that historical support region.<\/p>\n<p>A sustained recovery above 27,200 would weaken the immediate bearish-reversal thesis and call for reassessment.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>What about the area between 26,850 and 27,200?<\/p>\n<p>For me, this is primarily a decision zone.<\/p>\n<p>Nasdaq futures can remain inside this region without generating a sufficiently strong directional opportunity.<\/p>\n<p>One alternative worth monitoring is a recovery toward 27,135-27,200 that fails to hold.<\/p>\n<p>Such a rejection might provide a more attractive location for traders looking to sell a rally rather than chase the market lower after an already substantial decline.<\/p>\n<p>But there must be evidence of rejection. Reaching resistance alone does not establish a short trade.<\/p>\n<p>Equally, a trader considering a long should not assume that simply bouncing off historical support guarantees another advance.<\/p>\n<p>Friday&#8217;s US jobs report could change the picture quickly<\/p>\n<p>There is another important consideration for November 6.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/schedule\/news_release\/empsit.htm\" rel=\"follow\">US Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report<\/a> for October is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, one hour before the US stock market opens.<\/p>\n<p>That could have an important influence on Nasdaq futures.<\/p>\n<p>A report that materially changes expectations for Federal Reserve policy, inflation or economic growth could produce substantial volatility.<\/p>\n<p>For example, weaker employment data might encourage expectations of easier monetary policy, but an unexpectedly severe deterioration could simultaneously raise concerns about future corporate earnings.<\/p>\n<p>Likewise, stronger employment figures might support confidence in economic growth while potentially making interest-rate relief less likely.<\/p>\n<p>The market&#8217;s interpretation, not simply whether the number is above or below expectations, will matter.<\/p>\n<p>That makes it especially important to reassess the futures map if the announcement produces a substantial price adjustment.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, political and geopolitical uncertainty remains another source of potential market volatility.<\/p>\n<p>As Adam Button discussed in <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/the-market-is-waiting-for-signals-from-donald-trump\/\" rel=\"follow\">the market&#8217;s search for signals from Donald Trump<\/a>, investors are assessing whether the administration responds to the midterm election results by changing course or maintaining its existing approach to trade and foreign policy.<\/p>\n<p>Energy markets add another dimension. The recent <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/commodities\/oil-cracks-are-beginning-to-fall-and-refineries-are-pointing-to-more-normalization\/\" rel=\"follow\">decline in refining margins and signs of potential normalization<\/a> could eventually matter for fuel prices and inflation expectations, although significant energy-supply risks remain.<\/p>\n<p>These developments should not automatically be treated as explanations for every Nasdaq price movement. They are additional variables that traders need to consider when interpreting the next move.<\/p>\n<p>Is the Nasdaq dip an opportunity for longer-term investors?<\/p>\n<p>I believe the 26,350-26,400 support cluster deserves attention beyond Friday&#8217;s trading session.<\/p>\n<p>For an investor looking to increase technology exposure after a substantial correction, a return to important historical price levels may offer an opportunity to evaluate potential entries.<\/p>\n<p>But a lower price is not necessarily a better investment.<\/p>\n<p>The latest earnings season illustrates why.<\/p>\n<p>Some companies are experiencing considerable changes in their growth outlook, spending requirements and investor expectations. Others are still reporting results strong enough to attract substantial buying interest.<\/p>\n<p>A longer-term investor should consider whether a company&#8217;s earnings outlook, valuation and competitive position remain attractive, rather than relying exclusively on an index-level support zone.<\/p>\n<p>For the Nasdaq as a whole, I would become more constructive if the historical support cluster continues to hold and the market begins establishing a sequence of higher lows and recovering important resistance areas.<\/p>\n<p>If the cluster breaks decisively, however, the possibility of a deeper correction would require renewed consideration.<\/p>\n<p>My Nasdaq outlook for Friday<\/p>\n<p>There are two opposing developments worth respecting.<\/p>\n<p>First, the broader technical structure remains bearish after a 16.61% correction. The weakness in earnings reactions, together with uncertainty surrounding the AI investment cycle, gives little reason to assume that the selling pressure has disappeared.<\/p>\n<p>Second, Nasdaq futures have reached a historically meaningful support cluster and produced a substantial initial recovery.<\/p>\n<p>That deserves attention too.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>For Friday&#8217;s day traders, 27,200 is the bullish activation level, while 26,850 is the bearish activation level.<\/p>\n<p>For swing traders and investors, the more consequential reference remains 26,350-26,400.<\/p>\n<p>I would be especially interested in whether buyers can sustain the recovery after the US employment report and into the regular trading session.<\/p>\n<p>A successful defense, improving earnings follow-through and a recovery through successive resistance levels would strengthen the argument that the latest Nasdaq dip is becoming an opportunity.<\/p>\n<p>A failed rebound, renewed selling across technology stocks and a decisive loss of historical support would argue otherwise.<\/p>\n<p>My broader directional lean remains bearish, but the rebound has changed the short-term risk-reward picture. After such an extended decline, chasing shorts into major support deserves particular caution.<\/p>\n<p>For traders using the tradeCompass approach, the objective remains to respond to evidence rather than predict every move. Consider partial profits at planned targets, size positions around a defined invalidation point and remember that doing nothing is sometimes the most sensible decision.<\/p>\n<p>For more detail, see the <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/education\/what-is-tradecompass-at-investinglive-com-trading-methodolgy-explained-and-how-traders-can-utilize-it\/\" rel=\"follow\">investingLive guide to tradeCompass and its conditional trading approach<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Analysis based on the December 2026 Nasdaq-100 E-mini futures contract, with historical context from the continuous futures series. Price-data cutoff: November 5, 2026, 9:55 p.m. EST (November 6, 02:55 UTC). Overnight earnings reactions are provisional. Levels should be checked against the contract being traded.<\/p>\n<p>Educational only. Futures trading involves substantial risk. Trade at your own risk.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nasdaq futures rebound after a 16.6% plunge. Is this a dip to buy or a rally to sell? Nasdaq futures have bounced nearly 800 points from a major historical support zone, but&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441674","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441674","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441674"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441674\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441674"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441674"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441674"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}