{"id":441715,"date":"2026-11-06T20:40:06","date_gmt":"2026-11-06T13:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/non-farm-payrolls-preview-october-numbers-show-a-skew-441715\/"},"modified":"2026-11-06T20:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T13:40:06","slug":"non-farm-payrolls-preview-october-numbers-show-a-skew","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/non-farm-payrolls-preview-october-numbers-show-a-skew-441715\/","title":{"rendered":"Non-farm payrolls preview: October numbers show a skew"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>What&#8217;s expected:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Consensus estimate +65K (range +50K to +125K)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/us-september-non-farm-payrolls-29k-vs-90k-expected\/\" rel=\"follow\">September<\/a> +29K<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>August +133K<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>July -10K<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Private consensus estimate +64K<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.2% vs 4.2% prior<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Participation rate 61.8% prior<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.6%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Avg hourly earnings y\/y exp +2.9% y\/y vs +3.0% prior<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Avg hourly earnings m\/m exp +0.3% vs +0.1% prior<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Avg weekly hours exp 34.4 vs 34.4 prior<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>October jobs so far:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>ADP employment report +86K vs +67K expected and +86K prior<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>ISM services employment 51.4 vs 50.1 prior<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>ISM manufacturing employment 52.4 vs 52.0 exp and 52.7 prior<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Challenger Job Cuts 43,994 vs 43,281 prior<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Philly employment +9.1 vs +11.8 prior<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Empire employment +10.3 vs +10.6 prior<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Initial jobless claims survey week 194K vs 196K last month<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Revelio Labs +26K vs +68K prior<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>There is a positive skew in the numbers releaed so far, including ADP and both ISM reports. Yesterday&#8217;s report from Revelio Labs got some attention as a weak point.<\/p>\n<p>The market pricing for a December rate hike is down to 73% in light of the equity market volatility and the big question remains: What will Trump do in the Iran war. That and the outlook for AI with Anthropic&#8217;s IPO upcoming are the key variables right now. S&amp;P 500 futures are slightly higher but they were higher yesterday before the wheels fell off.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The US dollar is doing better on safe haven flows and a strong jobs report would add to the dollar bid and also get the market worrying about a scenario where the Fed has to hike even as the AI trade legs lower.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>BMO notes that &#8220;41% of previous unemployment prints for October have been lower-than-expected, 22% have been higher-than-estimates, and 37% have matched the consensus,&#8221; while there is a modest negative\u00a0skew versus expectations on the headline number.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What&#8217;s expected: Consensus estimate +65K (range +50K to +125K) September +29K August +133K July -10K Private consensus estimate +64K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.2% vs 4.2% prior Participation rate 61.8% prior Prior&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441715","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441715"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441715\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441715"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}