{"id":441719,"date":"2026-11-06T21:40:06","date_gmt":"2026-11-06T14:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-october-non-farm-payrolls-165k-vs-65k-expected-441719\/"},"modified":"2026-11-06T21:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T14:40:06","slug":"us-october-non-farm-payrolls-165k-vs-65k-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-october-non-farm-payrolls-165k-vs-65k-expected-441719\/","title":{"rendered":"US October non-farm payrolls +165K vs +65K expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/us-september-non-farm-payrolls-29k-vs-90k-expected\/\" rel=\"follow\">Prior <\/a>was +29K (revised to +60K)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Two-month net revision +84K<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% expected<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Prior unemployment rate 4.2%<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Unrounded unemployment 4.141% vs 4.1753%  prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Participation rate 61.9% vs 61.8% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">U6 underemployment rate 7.9% vs 7.6% prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Average hourly earnings +0.4% m\/m vs +0.3% expected<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Average hourly earnings 3.1% y\/y vs +2.9% expected<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.4 expected<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Change in private payrolls +159K  vs +64K expected<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Prior private payrolls +46K (revised to +78K)<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Change in manufacturing payrolls 19K vs +5K expected<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Government payrolls +6K vs -17K prior<\/li>\n<li class=\"whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Household survey +463K<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This is a beat from bottom to top and the wage growth will certainly make the Fed look twice. They will get another jobs report before the December 9 FOMC but this one will certainly make it more likely that they will hike rates.<\/p>\n<p>If there is a hint of weakness in the report is the rise in U6.\u00a0Part-time for economic reasons rose +339k to 4.84M. Almost all of it came from \u201cslack work or business conditions\u201d (+356k). That\u2019s employers cutting hours.<\/p>\n<p>US 2-year yields are up 4.5 bps on the day to 4.52% and USD\/JPY is up 72 pips to 158.38. S&amp;P 500 futures are still slightly higher but I think the stock market is focused on things other than macro at the moment.<\/p>\n<p>Note that last month was a soft one across the board so there isn&#8217;t necessarily momentum here but there are no real signs of weakness, especially considering that most of the pre-NFP jobs data was also strong for October.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Another interesting point is that there is a bifurcation in the construction center between data centers and everything else.\u00a0Nonresidential specialty trade contractors are +101k y\/y. Residential specialty contractors are -36k y\/y, including -15.2k in October alone. Higher rates won&#8217;t help unwind that.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior was +29K (revised to +60K) Two-month net revision +84K Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.2% Unrounded unemployment 4.141% vs 4.1753% prior Participation rate 61.9% vs 61.8% prior&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441719"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441719\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}