{"id":441798,"date":"2026-11-10T07:40:05","date_gmt":"2026-11-10T00:40:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-cpi-preview-43-day-shutdown-leaves-no-official-annual-rate-as-monthly-pace-seen-easing-441798\/"},"modified":"2026-11-10T07:40:05","modified_gmt":"2026-11-10T00:40:05","slug":"us-cpi-preview-43-day-shutdown-leaves-no-official-annual-rate-as-monthly-pace-seen-easing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-cpi-preview-43-day-shutdown-leaves-no-official-annual-rate-as-monthly-pace-seen-easing-441798\/","title":{"rendered":"US CPI preview: 43-day shutdown leaves no official annual rate as monthly pace seen easing"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">With no official annual rate, the monthly core reading carries most of the weight. A 0.3% core print would revive hawkish Fed pricing for December, likely lifting Treasury yields and the dollar and adding pressure to tech stocks still fragile after last week\u2019s selloff. A 0.2% or softer core reading would support the case for a pause and help extend Monday\u2019s equity rebound. Estimated annual headline figures near 4% may still dominate early headlines, so there is a risk of a knee-jerk move that fades once traders focus on the monthly detail. Lower gasoline prices during October offer some relief on the energy side.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\"> The monthly numbers should show prices rising more slowly than in September, but the shutdown gap means the annual inflation rate everyone quotes will be an estimate this time.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>The BLS releases October CPI at 13:30 GMT (08:30 US Eastern time); consensus sees headline up about 0.3% m\/m and core about 0.2%, after 0.6% and 0.3% in September<\/li>\n<li>Last year\u2019s 43-day shutdown means there is no October 2025 index, so the BLS will not publish 12-month changes for headline or core<\/li>\n<li>FactSet\u2019s estimates imply headline inflation of about 4% y\/y (from 3.7%) and core of about 2.8% (from 2.6%), but these are imputed, not official<\/li>\n<li>Analysts see risks to core tilted higher: shipping costs, reinstated tariffs, airfares and lodging, partly offset by softer owners\u2019 equivalent rent<\/li>\n<li>It is the final CPI before the Fed\u2019s December meeting; the Fed held in October, and an in-line print would not rule out further tightening<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">US consumer prices are expected to have risen at a slower monthly pace in October after a gasoline-driven jump in September. But Tuesday\u2019s report will arrive with a notable gap: there will be no official annual inflation rate for either the headline or the core index.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October CPI at 13:30 GMT (08:30 US Eastern time). Economists expect headline CPI to have risen about 0.3% on the month and core CPI, which strips out food and energy, about 0.2%, after gains of 0.6% and 0.3% in September. A smaller boost from gasoline, which fell during October, accounts for most of the expected slowdown in the headline figure. A real-time nowcast from the Cleveland Fed points to readings of about 0.2% for both measures.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The missing piece is a legacy of last year\u2019s 43-day government shutdown, which ran from October 1 to November 12, 2025. The BLS was unable to collect price data that month and never published an October 2025 CPI report. Without a year-ago index, the agency has said it will not publish 12-month changes for October 2026 where the October 2025 data are unavailable, which covers both the all-items and the core series.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">That leaves economists to impute last October\u2019s levels and estimate annual inflation themselves. FactSet\u2019s median estimates point to headline inflation of about 4% year on year, up from 3.7% in September, and core inflation of about 2.8%, up from 2.6%. Those figures rest on a small number of forecasts and on imputation choices that vary between firms. Any annual rate quoted after the release will be an estimate rather than an official reading.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Analysts see the risks to core as tilted higher. Elevated shipping costs and reinstated tariffs could lift core goods prices, while airfares, lodging and recreation services may add pressure. A pullback in owners\u2019 equivalent rent after unusual strength in September could offset some of that. Several forecasters note that monthly core readings below 0.15% have been rare since 2022.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The release is the final CPI report before the Federal Reserve\u2019s December meeting. The Fed held rates in October, and an in-line reading would leave inflation well above the 2% target without ruling out further tightening. With no official annual figures, the monthly core number is likely to drive the market reaction.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With no official annual rate, the monthly core reading carries most of the weight. A 0.3% core print would revive hawkish Fed pricing for December, likely lifting Treasury yields and the dollar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441798","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441798"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441798\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}