{"id":441801,"date":"2026-11-10T08:00:15","date_gmt":"2026-11-10T01:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/blackrock-an-ai-spending-slowdown-in-2027-would-hurt-markets-but-could-also-lower-yields-441801\/"},"modified":"2026-11-10T08:00:15","modified_gmt":"2026-11-10T01:00:15","slug":"blackrock-an-ai-spending-slowdown-in-2027-would-hurt-markets-but-could-also-lower-yields","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/blackrock-an-ai-spending-slowdown-in-2027-would-hurt-markets-but-could-also-lower-yields-441801\/","title":{"rendered":"BlackRock: an AI spending slowdown in 2027 would hurt markets but could also lower yields"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">BlackRock\u2019s two-sided framing helps explain why Treasuries can act as a hedge against AI risk. A slowdown in AI spending would hurt equities but ease the competition for capital that has kept yields elevated. The shift in focus from suppliers to adopters suggests leadership could rotate away from chipmakers and infrastructure names over time, toward companies that show measurable productivity gains. The firm\u2019s question about whether traditional hedges still work, and its call for flexibility, argue against heavy directional bets until AI adoption data firms up. Its 2027 Global Outlook next month is the next marker for positioning.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Earlier:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/stock-market-update\/goldman-sees-1-5-trillion-in-ai-debt-over-three-years-warns-supply-weighs-on-credit\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"follow\">Goldman sees $1.5 trillion in AI debt over three years, warns supply weighs on credit<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/stock-market-update\/wsj-anthropic-targets-nasdaq-debut-next-week-under-ticker-ant-despite-tech-selloff\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"follow\">WSJ: Anthropic targets Nasdaq debut next week under ticker ANT despite tech selloff<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"> BlackRock says the easy part of the AI trade, betting the build-out would happen, is over, and the harder question now is whether adoption can pay for it.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>BlackRock says the AI story is moving into a more nuanced phase, from pricing the build-out to assessing demand, adoption and who benefits<\/li>\n<li>A material AI spending slowdown in 2027, while far from certain, could hurt markets, but could also ease competition for capital and lower bond yields<\/li>\n<li>That two-sided uncertainty underpinned its move to neutral on US equities and its upgrade of US Treasuries last month<\/li>\n<li>AI\u2019s financing needs are colliding with government borrowing and spending on energy security and defence, raising crowding-out questions<\/li>\n<li>The higher-rate regime BlackRock has described for five years is now largely priced in, making the outlook less directional<\/li>\n<li>The firm\u2019s 2027 Global Outlook is due next month<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">BlackRock says the AI investment story is entering a more nuanced phase. Attention is moving from the infrastructure build-out to demand, adoption and who ultimately benefits, as competition for capital intensifies.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">In its weekly commentary following its 2027 Outlook Forum, the asset manager said last week\u2019s market swings around the US midterm elections illustrated the shift. US stocks rallied the day after Democrats took control of Congress, sold off sharply on Thursday and steadied on Friday. In the first phase of the AI transformation, BlackRock said, the opportunity lay in pricing the conviction that the build-out had to happen. Now investors are weighing the size and speed of that build-out against how quickly AI is adopted and spreads across different tasks.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">BlackRock described the risks as two-sided. A material slowdown in AI spending in 2027, which it called far from certain, could have significant adverse consequences for markets. But it could also ease competition for capital and lower bond yields, and its economic fallout could temper some policy initiatives. That uncertainty underpinned the firm\u2019s move to neutral on US equities and its upgrade of US Treasuries last month.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Forum participants debated how much AI capacity will ultimately be built, whether adoption can justify the scale of investment, and when opportunities might shift from suppliers to the companies adopting the technology. They also considered what would happen if spending slowed before productivity gains came through. Another question was who captures the gains and who is disrupted: technology providers, the businesses adopting AI, or their customers.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Competition for capital was a major theme. AI\u2019s extraordinary financing needs are colliding with government borrowing and spending on energy security and defence, which raises the question of whether other borrowers could be crowded out. With credit markets becoming more selective, participants discussed whether more equity issuance could help hyperscalers manage leverage and preserve their borrowing capacity.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">More broadly, BlackRock said the supply-driven regime of structurally higher interest rates it has described for five years is now largely priced in, after four years of an AI-driven bull market. That leaves the outlook less directional. Discussions covered shifting global capital flows, changing relationships between stocks, bonds and currencies, opportunities in Europe, China and emerging markets, and the reliability of traditional portfolio hedges. The firm will set out its views in its 2027 Global Outlook next month.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BlackRock\u2019s two-sided framing helps explain why Treasuries can act as a hedge against AI risk. A slowdown in AI spending would hurt equities but ease the competition for capital that has kept&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-441801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441801","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441801"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441801\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441801"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441801"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441801"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}