{"id":441849,"date":"2026-11-10T21:40:12","date_gmt":"2026-11-10T14:40:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/morning-kickstart-oil-slides-as-waller-puts-a-half-point-hike-in-play-markets-brace-for-cpi-441849\/"},"modified":"2026-11-10T21:40:12","modified_gmt":"2026-11-10T14:40:12","slug":"morning-kickstart-oil-slides-as-waller-puts-a-half-point-hike-in-play-markets-brace-for-cpi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/morning-kickstart-oil-slides-as-waller-puts-a-half-point-hike-in-play-markets-brace-for-cpi-441849\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Kickstart. Oil slides as Waller puts a half-point hike in play. Markets brace for CPI"},"content":{"rendered":"
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In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs\u2014EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD\u2014from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.<\/p>\n

Crude oil is down sharply again, Treasury yields are higher, and U.S. stock futures are mixed ahead of the 8:30 AM ET CPI release. The dollar is firmer across the board, but most of the gains are modest. The Australian dollar is the weakest of the majors against the greenback, with AUDUSD down 0.30%. The New Zealand dollar is holding up best, with NZDUSD down just 0.04%.<\/p>\n

Crude oil extends its slide as Trump plays down fresh strikes on Iran<\/p>\n

WTI is trading at $84.90, down 2.25% after falling about 4.5% on Monday. President Trump said he would hold off on fresh strikes against Iran following appeals from regional leaders, including Qatar\u2019s prime minister. Trump indicated the U.S. naval blockade would stay in place for now, while Tehran continued to insist on its conditions for talks, including lifting the blockade. Shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz remain a risk, even as traders price in lower odds of an immediate escalation.<\/p>\n

For oil, the next question is whether diplomacy leads to a change in shipping conditions. Another sign of progress could take more of the supply-risk premium out of crude. A fresh disruption around Hormuz could bring some of it back quickly. InvestingLive\u2019s crude oil coverage<\/a>. investinglive.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Waller gives traders a number to watch at 8:30 AM ET<\/p>\n

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support a 25-basis-point hike in December even if October inflation cools. If core CPI rises around 0.3% month over month or higher, he said the Fed should consider 50 basis points. The consensus is 0.2%, so a one-tenth upside surprise would put the report right at the level he flagged. InvestingLive\u2019s Waller coverage<\/a>. Federal Reserve Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Waller is concerned about how broadly prices are rising and how long higher energy costs could keep feeding through to other prices. He sees employment as close to the Fed\u2019s goal and expects output to keep growing at a solid pace, even if growth slows this quarter. In follow-up remarks, he said he wants to reverse at least the three insurance cuts and is looking for a much smaller adjustment than 150\u2013200 basis points. Treasuries initially sold off, stocks came under pressure and the dollar firmed on the half-point headline. Treasuries recovered a little ground after his follow-up. Federal Reserve Board<\/a><\/p>\n

In the UK,\u00a0Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said further rate hikes may be needed in the near term, even with the UK labor market stuck in low gear. She described a low-hire, low-fire market and said she\u2019s watching whether hiring picks up, workers can move into available jobs, and softer labor demand is actually easing wage and price pressures. For now, she sees inflation risks tilted to the upside. The longer energy costs stay high, the more pressure businesses face to restore margins by passing those costs on to customers. That could keep inflation sticky and make it harder to get back to the BoE\u2019s 2% target.<\/p>\n

The 10-year yield bounces from the 4.816% area<\/p>\n

The U.S. 10-year yield is back up to 4.894% after trading as low as 4.814% last week. That low tested two technical levels at 4.816% in the same move. The first is the 38.2% retracement of the rise from the March 2 low to the 5.365% high. The second is the rising 100-day moving average.<\/p>\n

That makes 4.814%\u20134.816% my barometer. Staying above that area keeps the rebound in yields intact. A sustained break below it would give bond buyers more control and open the door to a deeper retracement in yields. The first test is CPI. The 10-year auction gives us another read on demand this afternoon.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n